It is all just based on seismic modeling. I have drilled several dry holes due to “seismic modeling.”
I guess since it “doesn’t work”, that’s why the industry spends oodles & oodles of money doing seismic modeling!
When I was in the industry in the 1970s the claim was 1 hole out of 30 paid off. (Note I never bothered to check the claim! Saw no need to!) I am sure its a better ratio now.