Russia has been somewhat successful in southeastern Ukraine. This is because the Russian Navy which controls the Black Sea has been able to land troops and supplies without much harassment. If somehow the Ukrainians obtained sophisticated stealthy drones armed with anti ship missiles, the Russian presence there would be far less tenable.
I think Putin is bluffing when he declares that a country giving Ukraine jets will be an escalation.
I think Putin doesn't want us to know that his air force is in the same disarray as the rest of his military.
I think the "tell" is that Putin is going from "aircraft to Ukraine" straight to the threat of a nuclear response. What happened to Putin saying his planes will shoot down the Ukraine aircraft and bombard their airstrips? What happened to Putin saying he'd bring in his strategic bombers to devastate the Ukrainian countryside?
Why is Putin jumping over an air-to-air response and straight to nukes, if not to cover for an air force in disrepair?
-PJ