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To: fireman15

Of course it’s dynamic and the numbers will change when we get better numbers. The fatality numbers I’m using are what we are seeing in Central Virginia as of right now...other localities’ info may vary. I’m reasonably sure of our local numbers but I agree with your point about the fluidity of the total numbers.


44 posted on 12/14/2021 9:19:36 AM PST by mdmathis6 (Having the Conch shell is no longer recognized by Dem "Flies" as giving one authority to speak.)
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To: mdmathis6
But how should the number that you are using be interpreted? What value does it have to someone who is attempting to evaluate risk to them self or their family? Things change quickly even in a narrowly defined area such as Central Virginia. I believe that the number you are using represents the total number of “cases” divided by the total number of “deaths” that have been attributed to Covid all the way back to when the original CCP\Fauci Gain of Function version was first detected.

There are so many problems with using the number that you have provided to predict any one person's risk from Covid. First “cases” has an unknown relationship to the actual number of people who have been infected. From the beginning a large percentage of people who have been infected are asymptomatic or have symptoms that are so minor that they have had no need to seek medical attention. World-o-meter claims that there have been 51 million “cases” of Covid in the United States as of today. But I just heard Senator Rand Paul say that over 100 million people have recovered from Covid and have natural immunity. Others have said that this number is likely twice this amount.

World-o-meter claims that there have been 819 thousand deaths related to Covid. But we have no idea how accurate this number is. The vast majority of the people who are counted as Covid deaths have serious co-morbidities like my brother-in-law who had inoperable brain cancer. There are people who made the list who come from an entire spectrum of how much Covid contributed to their demise from not at all to completely. The number 819 thousand might as well have been completely made up.

So by World-o-meter’s numbers the death rate 819 thousand divided by 51 million we get 0.016 or the 1.6% number that you have been touting. But it is completely meaningless in whole or in part because the rate is always changing and as I just explained the two numbers it is based on are not clearly defined. Garbage in, garbage out.

45 posted on 12/14/2021 10:15:32 AM PST by fireman15
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