Right, the proportion of "older people" is higher in the vaccinated population because there are zero "younger people", that is under 18, in that group while there are many in the unvaccinated group.
Wouldn't the number of "older people" be more in a population that is twice the size of the other, despite it being per capita?
The number would be greater but not the rate. That's what the per capita calculation is for.
Per capita income doesn't necessarily change as the population grows, does it?
So where do we see the "mortality effect" flip in the chart at the top as the unvaccinated population decreases and the vaccinated population increases?
Not sure how to say this again.
The size of the populations doesn't affect this calculation.
Out of every 100,000 vaccinated people how many died of a non-Covid cause?
Is it more or fewer than died in a demographically similar group of unvaccinated 100,000 people.
That's it. It doesn't matter how many total in each group there are, the rate calculation normalizes for that.
The problem here is one of the two populations is older on average, so naturally their mortality rate is higher.
Per capita just takes the absolute numbers and divides them by the total population and then multiplies it by 100,000. There is no other magic than that.
The size of the populations doesn't affect this calculation. Out of every 100,000 vaccinated people how many died of a non-Covid cause?
It's not the size of the population, it's the mix of the population. Prior to June 19, the mix of the population was that the unvaccinated was 2.5 times the size of the vaccinated population. They were roughly equal at June 19. By September, the vaccinated population was 2.5 times the unvaccinated population.
So, your question should be: "Out of every 100,000 vaccinated people on March 19 [June 19, etc.], how many died of a non-Covid cause?" And so on. Because the population was not static across all time periods.
What you asked is the difference between the data on table 3 and table 4 from the dataset.
| Per Capita | COVID-19 Deaths | Non-COVID-19 Deaths | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week Ending | Vaccinated | Unvaccinated | Vaccinated | Unvaccinated |
| 19-Mar-2021 | 0 | 0.2 | 1 | 1.9 |
| 26-Mar-2021 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| 02-Apr-2021 | 0 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| 09-Apr-2021 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 16-Apr-2021 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 23-Apr-2021 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1.4 |
| 30-Apr-2021 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 07-May-2021 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 14-May-2021 | 0 | 0.1 | 3 | 1.1 |
| 21-May-2021 | 0 | 0 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 28-May-2021 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.1 |
| 04-Jun-2021 | 0 | 0 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 11-Jun-2021 | 0 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 18-Jun-2021 | 0 | 0 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 25-Jun-2021 | 0 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| 02-Jul-2021 | 0 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 09-Jul-2021 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 16-Jul-2021 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 23-Jul-2021 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 30-Jul-2021 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 06-Aug-2021 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 13-Aug-2021 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 20-Aug-2021 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 27-Aug-2021 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| 03-Sep-2021 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 10-Sep-2021 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 17-Sep-2021 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 24-Sep-2021 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
The problem here is one of the two populations is older on average, so naturally their mortality rate is higher.
No. The "older" population (55-59) is changing depending on the time slice.
According to this Wikipedia article on the vaccination roll-out in the United Kingdom, the general population under 60 without comorbidities didn't begin getting vaccinated until March (the start of the data). The youngest groups began vaccination in June.
The "older" population is the unvaccinated population before June 18, and is the vaccinated population after June 18 (from the table in my earlier post). The 65+ group was vaccinated before the start of the data (pre-March).
By the equilibrium point in June 18 when the youngest members began to be vaccinated, supposedly they would bring down the per capita death rate as they enter the vaccinated population. However, this does not seem to be happening according to the data.
The unvaccinated per capita non-COVID death rate falls from a high of 1.9 in March to about 1.1 in June. However, the vaccinated per capita non-COVID death rate rises from 1 in March to a peak of 3.1 in June, and remains at that level.
Why does the vaccinated non-COVID death rate rise faster than the unvaccinated non-COVID death rate falls as the population moves from the latter group to the former?
-PJ