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To: semimojo
"9. For the 10-59 age group, the vaccinated population will on average be older than the unvaccinated population due to age-based prioritisation in the vaccine roll-out. As mortality rates are higher for older people, this will increase the mortality rates for the vaccinated population compared to the unvaccinated population."

Here is more:

According to this (arguably dated) Wikipedia breakout of the UK population (ca. 2011) into 5-year age bands, the "older people" are roughly uniform in breakout to the rest of the population.

Age structure for each five-year band in 2011[59]
Ages attained

(years)

Population % of total
0–4 3,914,000 6.2
5–9 3,517,000 5.6
10–14 3,670,000 5.8
15–19 3,997,000 6.3
20–24 4,297,000 6.8
25–29 4,307,000 6.8
30–34 4,126,000 6.5
35–39 4,194,000 6.6
40–44 4,626,000 7.3
45–49 4,643,000 7.3
50–54 4,095,000 6.5
55–59 3,614,000 5.7
60–64 3,807,000 6.0
65–69 3,017,000 4.8
70–74 2,463,000 3.9
75–79 2,006,000 3.2
80–84 1,496,000 2.4
85–89 918,000 1.5
90+ 476,000 0.8

Are the "older people" those in the 55-59 band? Do you fellow FReepers who are 55-59 think of yourselves as "older people" yet?

Are we going to start calling those in the 50-54 band "older people" too?

According to the above table, the "older people" in the 55-59 band make up 8.7% of the population of 10-59, the smallest of the 5-year bands between 10-59. Assuming that not all of them were vaccinated, are we really to believe the implication of the footnote that less than 8% of the data is skewing the rest of the chart?

I conclude that the footnote 9 overstates the influence of "mortality rates for older people" on this data.

-PJ

62 posted on 11/24/2021 11:19:25 PM PST by Political Junkie Too ( * LAAP = Left-wing Activist Agitprop Press (formerly known as the MSM))
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To: Political Junkie Too; semimojo
Double checkmate in a Z formation.

Give up while you're behind, Mojo.


63 posted on 11/24/2021 11:45:54 PM PST by bagster ("Even bad men love their mamas".)
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To: Political Junkie Too
I conclude that the footnote 9 overstates the influence of "mortality rates for older people" on this data.

The absolute mortality rate for a particular age band isn't important for this analysis. What matters is the all-cause death rate increases with age. I didn't research the UK but here's the US chart:

A population with a higher average age, like the vaccinated in this study, will have a higher mortality rate.

Is anything about that really controversial?

Face it, Berenson blew it here. If you're charitable you can say he's a very sloppy journalist. I'm a little more cynical.

72 posted on 11/25/2021 9:23:36 AM PST by semimojo
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