“ cases are shown to have been increasing a little in northern and mid latitude states”.
I talked with a doctor today, who has been treating an increased number of COVID-19 patients in Northern Virginia (DC area). He also theorized that this wave is heading North. (He also said that more patients are younger than previous waves, and that those in ICUor dying are almost exclusively unvaccinated).
President Trump’s former FDA Administrator Scott Gottlieb, has also predicted the wave moving North in the coming weeks/months (post-Labor Day).
The UK Delta wave went up quickly to ten-fold over 7-8 weeks (like ours), then dropped quickly in half (as we seem about to). Then however, it plateaued at that level. If we follow suit, we will still have a fairly high level of transmission occurring, as cold and flu season begins.
There seems to be a noticeable seasonality to COVID-19. Several modelers predict another wave during the season, and several European countries (notably Germany) are making vaccination pushes, in anticipation of a seasonal upsurge.
A pertinent question would be whether Delta has more or less effectively swept through most of the UK?
The US has a lot of heavily populated areas that have not yet seen a big Delta wave. Those areas / states / cities are also those where, for better or worse, stronger mitigation has been in place. I would postulate those areas may see continued moderate increases in cases until the end of October. After that, well, we shall see.