I started to search but the following came up quickly and for a more recent study (2018) with a close approximation to the 1 in 6:
https://www.verywellhealth.com/what-percentage-of-smokers-get-lung-cancer-2248868 There's table that indicates (for male smokers), chance is 14.8%, which is about 1 in 6.75.
Thanks! That is a lot more than I could find 10 yrs ago when I tried to research it. I don’t know how credible that site is (what their sources are) but I’ll take it at face value.
That said, they put a lot of caveats on the way they apply the data to different groups. They also throw shade on previous data by saying “there wasn’t a lot of study done in the past.” I am skeptical of that. In the ‘80s they were well along the track of collecting every bit of data possible on smoking and its effects.