...the cost to China may be too much for the CCP to bear.
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Sorry to disagree but China is a Communist country which means they don’t give a damn about what it costs in lives to defeat Taiwan.
China has 2.2 million active military personnel and 1.2 million in reserve. Taiwan has 165 thousand active personnel and 1.65 million in reserve. Without substancial support from the US (and Japan and Australia) China would overwhelm Taiwan through sheer numbers of personnel and materials.
Biden and the DOD have demonstrated weakness and it may be enough to convince China the USA is a paper tiger.
After this fiasco in Afghanistan aren’t we required to come to Taiwan’s defense? Our credibility worldwide has been severely damaged by what is happening in Afghanistan, our allies are worried, enemies are emboldened etc.
China makes a move on Taiwan and we do nothing? It would be the end of American influence world wide. How would America recover from such a move?