Everyone is a genius in hindsight but we don’t live that way. How many people cashed out when their bitcoin value doubled or tripled? 10x? 100x? When it hit over $20,000 and then sank to less than $3,000 how many people bailed halfway down or near the bottom? The right bet was to see it as a bond and not cash in until retirement provided you don’t get ripped off by the exchange that is expected to fork over the $44 million. Do you trust them? Does your husband or wife? How much is enough for the average person? What’s your number?
Its another example of the old “marshmallow” psychology experiment. I’ll give you a marshmallow now and come back in 15 minutes. If you don’t eat the marshmallow I’ll give you two more. Most kids ate the first marshmallow. Its human nature to not delay gratification. People like Warren Buffett were able to wait for the second marshmallow.
I did that after the three disastrous CEOs failed at Apple after Jobs left (and before he returned).
John Sculley, 1983 – 1993
Michael Spindler, 1993 – 1996
Gil Amelio, 1996 – 1997
We had lost about 90% of the peak value of our holdings and I bailed out in the Amelio era. The company was headed toward bankruptcy and liquidation.
As they say, “too soon old, too late smart.”