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If Biden dies or is replaced via the 25th Amendment, Harris becomes President and the office of Vice-President becomes valcant. This means that the ‘Rats would no longer have positive control of the Senate. While there is a mechanism to select a new VP in the 25th Amendment, the Senate would not have to go along; McConnell could tell Schumer that the GOP would agree to a ‘Rat senator from a state with a GOP governor becoming VP (i.e., someone like Sherrod Brown, Jon Tester or Jeanne Shaheen). In that event, the GOP governor would pick a GOP person to be the new senator.

if your scenario were to come true, and AOC became the Speaker, look for the House to have a GOP majority after 2022 that would be somewhere around 275-160. The problem with this scenario is that there are a few ‘Rats who would like to get re-elected, and would not go along with AOC, and might well throw in with the GOP to elect a compromise Speaker. Currently there are 431 members of the House, with the ‘Rats holding a 220-211 advantage (there are 4 vacancies; the GOP will go to 212 after July 27’s general election in TX-06; the two Ohio vacancies one GOP, one ‘Rat, will be filled in November, and the Alcee Hastings seat in FL will be decided in a special election on January 11, 2022). Assuming all 211 GOPers vote for their caucus selection (presumably Kevin McCarthy; could also be retiring Kevin Brady of TX), they would only need to peel off 5 ‘Rats