Look at the two links that I provided you.
Mathys is one of us. Can he catch lightning in a bottle? Calif. has problems and the delta smelt may not be the issue with rank and file voters-business perhaps. Think long term-6-10 years. Would he be able to hold it until 2030 redistricting? Valvado accomplished something in this blue district. i say no.
Why should I look at 538, given their track record?
Enjoy your stay on FR.