Posted on 05/12/2021 11:44:59 AM PDT by BeauBo
(President Trump's Operation Warp Speed Update)
(Disease trending down strongly - Biden announced modest goal of 70% of adults with first shot by 4th of July)
Total Vaccine Doses Delivered: 337,089,765 (19,803,300 J&J)
Administered: 264,680,844 (9,266,062 J&J)
People Vaccinated, At Least One Dose: 153,986,312
Fully Vaccinated: 117,647,439
(Excerpt) Read more at covid.cdc.gov ...
Doses Delivered: 3 Million (OK) (42,000 J&J - low pre-pause norm)
Total Administered: 1.5 Million (Very Weak) (78,000 J&J - a pre-pause norm)
New People Receiving 1st Dose: 538,000 (Very, very Weak)
People Fully Vaccinated: 1.1 Million (Weak)
Strong inventories on hand (72 million).
% Total Population with at least a First Shot: 46.4% (up 0.2)
Those ≥ 18 Years of Age (Adults): 58.7% (up 0.2)
Those ≥ 65 Years of Age: 84% (up .2) (71.9% Fully vaccinated - up 0.3)
Cases and New Hospitalizations continue trending downward, pretty strongly.
643 New Deaths reported (downward).
J&J continues to lag.
Novavax announced they will not request an Emergency Use Authorization in May, as expected - June at the earliest.
Biden announced new goals - 70% of adults with at least a first shot, by the 4th of July (about 30 million more). This modest goal would require about 650-700,000 more per day (about the current rate).
When this started, 60% was herd immunity. Once again, the goalposts are moved. I’m over 60, work from home, and see no reason to take a vaccine that may or may not give me 6 months of protection, and likely will need a “booster”.
CDC updated today: 4,434 “after vax deaths.”
It is unfortunate that the CDC recently “transitioned” from reporting all “breakthrough cases” to just cases that result in hospitalization or death. It makes it very hard to get an accurate picture on how wide spread breakthrough cases are.
Yesterday the New York Yankees reported that 3 coaches and supporting staff have covid. All 3 were vaccinated with the J&J vax on April 7th.
If you combine a couple of statistics, such as the Red Cross reporting 20% of blood donations from unvaccinated donors contains covid antibodies, and the nearly 50% of Americans who have received a vaccine, we should be well above that 60% number if not closer to 70% for “herd immunity”.
IMO, each citizen would be wise to educate themselves on these gene therapy experimental drugs injected into their bodies. Be reminded they are not FDA approved and no one knows what the consequences of having them in one’s body will be in the future.
THE COMING COVID CATASTROPHE
https://www.brighteon.com/536a0e60-9b86-442f-8546-d2cc0d89ad71
57 Top Scientists And Doctors Release Shocking Study On COVID Vaccines And Demand Immediate Stop to ALL Vaccinations
https://www.deconstructingconventional.com/post/18-reason-i-won-t-be-getting-a-covid-vaccine
“IMO, each citizen would be wise to educate themselves…”
**********************************************
Well, thank you. I educated myself, found the mRNA vaccines safe and effective and then went out and got the Moderna vaccine… both doses. My wife and I are doing splendidly at more than two months after our 2nd doses.
“When this started, 60% was herd immunity.”
That was a good estimate for a previously unknown disease.
Now we have some more detailed actual performance curve information from Israel’s vaccination program. Of course, many variables will differ from one Country to another - even one State or County to another - but after we are over 50%, we are reducing replication rate below the growth level.
When you combine all the vaccinations given, with all the natural exposures we have had, we should be (and are) seeing case numbers decline. We are in the window of herd immunity effects already (IMHO), and they will continue to grow stronger, as more are vaccinated and exposed.
Even after cases numbers drop to very low levels however, COVID-19 is unlikely to become totally extinct. If immunity is short-lived (e.g. 6 months), it might re-emerge quickly (e.g. next cold and flu season).
Another concern, is that vaccine evading variants will breed in the rest of the world where case numbers stay high, and spread through the USA.
In any event, if you have risk factors (like age), the likely risk period for COVID could extend significantly into the future (several years) - making the development of individual immunity (like vaccination) relatively more valuable.
My understanding is that we don’t know yet how long the immunity will persist after the various vaccines. There is a risk it will only last for a few months (which now seems unlikely, with trial participants already over a year in). The general expectation is for a few years. But on the extreme, some vaccines produce lifelong immunity. Some individuals who were exposed to Spanish Flu as children, demonstrated an immune response to a challenge, a hundred years later.
So we have no guarantees. But like Israel and the UK, the vaccines seem to be bringing the disease down as expected, according to the effectiveness determined in their trials. That would indicate that we are likely to see case numbers continue to decline - this is likely the terminal approach of the curve, that will bring the lockdowns and restrictions to an end (rolling out between now and the 4th of July).
The April 2020 variant has an R0 of about 2.5. The Herd Immunity Threshold is calculated as 1-1/R0. So for an R0 of 2.5, we have 1-1/2.5 or 0.6 (60%).
Since that time, the UK, South Africa, Brazil, and India variants have emerged. They're all present here. Some of them spread significantly more and thus have a higher R0. Recent estimates for the variants range from about 4.3 to 5.2. Plug that back into the HIT formula and you get 77% - 81%.
The virus is moving the goalposts through mutation. The math remains constant.
"take a vaccine that may or may not give me 6 months of protection, and likely will need a “booster”."
The vaccines available today were formulated against the original Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 virus. The April 2020 variant that took over worldwide (due to its significantly increased spread) had no changes to the S protein and thus is still very much covered by the vaccines. Certain variants (notably the South Africa and Brazil variants) have changes to their protein structures that enable them to partially evade immunity developed against the April 2020 variant or original Wuhan virus. P.1 (Brazil variant) is particularly bad about this. In a Brazilian city where 70% of the population had already been infected and recovered from COVID-19, P.1 showed up and tore through the city for a second round.
The vaccines elicit higher antibody levels than a mild or asymptomatic COVID-19 infection. So unless you've had a severe COVID-19 infection, the vaccines provide more protection. However, that protection is imperfect, particularly against variants like P.1. The "booster" coming in the fall specifically targets the variants to provide better protection against them. It's not because the immunity developed from getting vaccinated suddenly vanishes; it's to improve that immunity against variants with structural changes that make antibodies for the April 2020 variant less effective.
“CDC updated today: 4,434 “after vax deaths.””
(after 264,680,844 separate vaccination events)
CDC also reported today: 4,119 COVID-19 Deaths in the last 7 days.
How many more would have died just this week, without the protection from the vaccines?
We had tens of thousands of COVID deaths per week, earlier this year. More Americans died of COVID-19, than from combat in WWII.
SPOT ON!!
looks like we are running out of new people to get vaccinated. Most of the vaccines are the second dose to people who already had one.
I am still missing some vigorous marketing from the Resident Bidet.
There are some lousy state adds here and there. Nothing from our Resident.
Can you provide sources for this?
Those are a whole bunch of wishy washy words. "a Brazilian city" "showed up" "tore through". Does "infected and recovered" mean "had symptoms, was diagnosed via positive PCR test and then symptoms resolved" or does it mean "PCR test discovered proteins in their nose"?
Are they claiming that a large number of patients who had Covid became re-infected with the variant or simply that the community was affected by 2 strands?
The former would be surprising since people who had SARSCoV-1 are immune to SARSCoV-2. SARSCoV-1 and SARSCoV-2 are genetically 20% different while the variants are about 2% genetically different from one another.
why should anyone trust anything that you and the cdc says about stopping the spread of a so called “deadly virus” while all of you are complicit in our feral government opening the border, inviting, and continuing to distribute thousands of “disease carrying invaders” across our country” during a so called “global pandemic”???...
Sure thing, always happy to provide sources:
https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/04/13/science.abh2644
There are some interesting theoretical models to explain the second major wave without mass reinfection, but they require a lot of assumptions to all fall perfectly into place (population demographics, movement patterns, etc.) for this to even be possible. There’s a preprint paper discussing how that could work here:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.25.21254281v1.full-text
However, given the structural changes to the S protein in P.1, significant reinfection primarily focused on those with mild or asymptomatic previous COVID-19 infection remains - by far - the most likely reason for what took place in Manaus and other areas.
that’s a nice new tagline you’ve got going on there...
how about you practice what you’re preaching in it...
My tagline has been the same since June of last year.
And providing people with factual information enables them to prepare for the future, which reduces anxiety and fear. It also inoculates them against the fearmongering coming from both sides. Blowing smoke up peoples’ butts doesn’t prepare them and leads only to more fear when the fantasy bubble bursts and the reality of the situation sets in.
Fact is, this virus kills 0.65% of infected persons across the population, but primarily focused on older and less healthy persons. We do have effective - but imperfect - treatments; namely the multiple monoclonal antibody therapy products now available. President Trump received one when he was hospitalized with COVID-19. They work well for many, but are not a cure-all for everyone. The most effective tools we have against the virus are the vaccines developed and produced with the help of President Trump’s administration. Most of the country is getting them now, particularly older folks who are most at risk for serious complications from COVID-19. Those vaccines provide significant (not perfect, but close) protection against COVID-19, including against infection and transmission.
The pandemic is over in Israel, where they vaccinated most of their population already. It’s ending here in the US very soon. There was never a reason to be fearful or panic, nor to bring the economy to a halt. There was every reason to prepare defenses against this virus and put sensible policies in place to limit its transmission and protect the most vulnerable people. State and local governments failed miserably at that job. Their failures resulted in many unnecessary deaths. But that’s mostly behind us at this point as we near the end of the pandemic.
That’s not banging the fear drum; that’s acknowledging reality and dealing with the reality in a rational manner.
“Those are a whole bunch of wishy washy words. “a Brazilian city””
I believe it was Manaus, which is like the gateway to the Amazon, if you want to go exploring. Last big city before you go into the deep forest with the native tribes.
How’s it going?
Thanks for your work, and updates.
First week back in the office since April 2020. Good to be with my coworkers again.👍
Getting back to normal.
My doctor even said tongue kissing was OK.
Actually, she said it more than just OK, but I don’t like to brag.
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