[13foxtrot]

If the virus eventually works its way through the whole unvaccinated population, ARR should approach RRR.

Good point. Modeling this stuff requires complex differential equations -- there are many moving parts.

Also, as the virus works its way through the population more people are exposed to the virus reducing the number of hosts for the virus reducing the need for emergency vaccines.

[BeauBo]

“as the virus works its way through the population more people are exposed to the virus reducing the number of hosts for the virus reducing the need for emergency vaccines.”

Yes, the risk of getting COVID keeps changing.

It is kind of like the Prisoner’s Dilemma, where the optimum decision for the individual, depends on what other’s do.

If everyone else gets vaccinated (or exposed), the last unvaccinated/unexposed person’s risk becomes vanishingly small.