Chad Pergram
@ChadPergram
1) Hse GOP elected GOP WY Rep Liz Cheney conf chair on November 14, 2018. Cheney’s father held the same position in the ‘80s. I ask Cheney f her dad gave her any advice. “He told me not to screw it up,” replied Cheney.
2) Sr Hse GOP ldrshp source tells Fox it is “more than likely” there will be vote on Cheney’s future when the House returns to session next week.
Internal House GOP rules require 50 of its members to sign a petition to make a motion to potentially change leaders in mid-Congress.
3) Fox is told that many Republicans were willing to give Cheney “a second chance” after a very contentious February meeting over the winter about her leadership role. Cheney survived a “no confidence” vote in the conference, 145-61.
4) But Fox is told such a vote could have a different outcome if held now. Republicans grumbled about Cheney and the recent Republican issue retreat in Orlando, FL.
5) “It’s a problem if you have an issues conferences and the biggest issue which comes out of it is her,” grumbled one senior Republican of Cheney who asked not to be identified.
6) Another Republican noted that Democrats are enjoying this battle because Republicans are wrestling with their own internal problems and not tussling with President Biden.
7) “Kevin (McCarthy) really helped her hang in that vote,” said one knowledgeable House GOP source about the February referendum. “Had he not intervened, it would have been a lot closer.” Tat’s why some Republicans are increasingly vocal about holding another vote on Cheney soon.
8) Many Republicans are afraid to cross the former President. Even those who were skeptical or once worked against President Trump eventually jumped on board after they saw how he resonated with voters in their districts.
9) If the GOP belongs to President Trump, it’s obvious that voices from Cheney, Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) and Anthony Gonzalez (R-OH) face marginalization. The former President has lashed out at all three of those members, planning to incinerate them in Republican primaries.
10) Take this a step further. Look at the fates of former Sens. Bob Corker (R-TN), Jeff Flake (R-AZ) and former Rep. Justin Amash (L-MI).
11) Politicians make decisions, based on, surprise, politics. The former President is still the most important figure in the GOP. McCarthy initially placed blame on the former President for the January riot. Then McCarthy visited Mr. Trump in Florida and softened his language.
12) Republicans stand a very good chance to win control of the House in the 2022 midterms. If the election were held right now, Republicans would only have to flip seven seats. Mr. Trump pledged to help Republicans wrest control of the House next year. McCarthy was all in.
13) It’s one thing for Democrats to duke it out with Republicans. But family battles are always more brutal. Look at presidential primaries each cycle. And, this fight over Cheney is where some Republicans eye opportunity.
14) There’s a reason why McCarthy didn’t become Speaker when former House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) abruptly announced his retirement in the fall of 2015. McCarthy lacked the votes. Some Republicans looked for a reason to defeat him. McCarthy withdrew from the leadership race
15) The GOP anointed former House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) – who originally didn’t want the job.
Some believed McCarthy was damaged goods.
16) There was speculation after Republicans lost the House in 2018 that McCarthy might leave Congress. Some suggested that House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-LA) may be able to defeat McCarthy in a leadership race.
17) Scalise’s stock rose dramatically after he recovered from the 2017 baseball practice shooting. And Cheney’s stock went up after Republicans tapped her to lead the conference in the fall of 2018. The number of Republican women was dwindling in the House.
18) Republicans liked the idea of elevating a woman. And, some Republicans embraced how Cheney matched up with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).
19) But Congressional Republicans coalesced around President Trump. The placement of Cheney in a leadership role worked for the conference just a couple of years ago. But political power is fleeting. She wouldn’t be the first political leader to see her support evaporate.
20) Some analysts viewed Cheney as a possible threat to McCarthy and Scalise. But no more. And that’s why some believe Cheney could face political peril. If that’s the case, look to see who may line up to succeed Cheney.
21) If Cheney goes, Republicans may prefer a woman in the job, such as Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), Jackie Walorski (R-IN) or even freshman Nancy Mace (R-SC).
“But sometimes we don’t always do the right thing with women in leadership,” conceded one House Republican to Fox.
22) Also watch for Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN), the head of the Republican Study Committee (RSC). Keep an eye on Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) as the Vice Chair of the GOP Conference. Also in the mix: Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-GA), the GOP Chief Deputy Whip.
23) This fight over Cheney and the core of the party will likely reach a crescendo when Congress returns in a week, if not before. But Cheney’s future will say a lot about the direction of the Republican party – and serve as a barometer on President Trump’s muscle.
https://twitter.com/ChadPergram/status/1389626153900589057
Thanks for that tweet thread, Gran.
Pergram....always the RINO/lefty, doing his level best to paint PDJT as the problem, rather than the RINO brigade.
We need Cheney AND McCarthy OUT.
Especially now that we know what we know, about he and Luntz.
As far as having a woman replace Cheney.....why not MTG or Lauren Bohbert?
No Mace!! And, Elise is okay, but has flip flopped on a few critical issues, IIRC.
How about Tim Scott as a replacement for Liz?
Thank you for posting. Very informative. I wish Republicans would just promote the most qualified instead of looking for a woman specifically.
Was our running errands (exhausted now) and Hannity was promoting Jenner for governor, she’s going on his show. Says she’s running on substance, not identity politics. I remember the grief she got sticking up for Republican issues after her transition.