Fauci: Moderna vaccine 'effective for 6 months'

NHK ^ | 2 hours ago 4/8/21

[grey_whiskers]

UK Modeling of resurgence of the coof. Of interest —

32. The resurgence in both hospitalisations and deaths is dominated by those that have
received two doses of the vaccine, comprising around 60% and 70% of the wave
respectively. This can be attributed to the high levels of uptake in the most at-risk age
groups, such that immunisation failures account for more serious illness than unvaccinated
individuals. This is discussed further in paragraphs 55 and 56.

Who becomes seriously ill in a resurgence?
55. Figure 11 illustrates the age and vaccination status of those hospitalised (left) and dying
(right) over time in Warwick’s central scenario for the whole Roadmap (equivalent to figure
4). The top plots are absolute numbers and the bottom plots are as a proportion of those
admitted or dying.
56. This shows that most deaths and admissions in a post-Roadmap resurgence are in
people who have received two vaccine doses, even without vaccine protection
waning or a variant emerging that escapes vaccines. This is because vaccine uptake
has been so high in the oldest age groups (modelled here at 95% in the over 50-year olds).
There are therefore 5% of over 50-year olds who have not been vaccinated, and 95% x
10% = 9.5% of over 50-year olds who are vaccinated but, nevertheless, not protected
against death. This is not the result of vaccines being ineffective, merely uptake
being so high.

Source : https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/975909/S1182_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_modelling_of_easing_roadmap_step_2_restrictions.pdf

[Cathi]

Thanks very much for sending that UK modeling report. It was interesting; but careful reading of the whole thing sure makes it easy to see why “modeling” has a reputation for never getting things right...:-)

Personally, I disagree with many of their assumptions and predictions (from expected resurgence of the virus to huge uptake of the vaccine, to the inevitability of continued covid, etc.) On the bright side, I think the modelers are too pessimistic....like Imperial was last year when they frightened us with the predicted 2.2 million deaths if we didn’t do everything Dr. Fauci ordered...:-)

In my opinion one of the biggest problems with these well intentioned efforts is “Ceteris paribus”, a Latin phrase that generally means “all other things being equal.” In economics, it acts as a shorthand indication of the effect one economic variable has on another, provided all other variables remain the same. But, of course, nothing stays the same. As soon as one thing is altered everything else shifts.

Viruses usually pretty much fizzle out once the majority of the population develops immunity. In addition to the immunity from having covid, nearly one-third of American adults have been fully vaccinated. I think the worst of this is over.

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

I’m not sure Fauxci knows diddly daddly.