What Went Wrong With Texas’s Main Electric Grid and Could It Have Been Prevented?

Texas Monthly ^ | Andrea Zelinski

[KC Burke]

This is controllable for a rate regulated public utility without government planners running all design and capitalization. Just prevent costs from such disasters from being allowed in the rate base calculations to a large percent and allow costs for preventative capital costs to be included as a protection to the public.

Bingo — less failure.

[RedStateRocker]

I don’t think it has to be an either/or. You can have the advantages of a free market with accountability to the public for those who oversee it.

A problem with big-entity capitalism, IMHO that the corporate boards of directors who kill companies and/or screw things up for normal people almost never see jail of face the direct wrath of the people, thanks to the ‘corporate veil’, much like the qualified immunity of police. People should be 100 percent responsible for that which they have control over, regardless of corporate status or any other legal stratagem.

None of that means a free and flexible market isn’t the best way to allocate resources (with some societal obligation to help those in GENUINE need, IMHO).

[KC Burke]

here are two graphs that tell a lot of the story

...and this at the link...

https://graphics.texastribune.org/graphics/power-outage-2021-02/

Sorry I can't figure out how to display that one...

You have undependable subsidized green power making up a significant portion and then gas being the quick uptake power base but without all weather capability due to low storage (well heads too nearby) and no systems to keep freezing temps from impacting its transmission systems. Coal and nuclear dropped due to water cooling systems being impacted as well.

[aquila48]

“Some have suggested that if all the cars were electric, we could have used those collective batteries to supply power back to the grid.

Of course I am not sure I know of anyone who would having willingly drained their car battery just to keep the lights on in a distant town.”

As it was pointed out in the article Texas has its own grid unhooked from any outside grid. If it was tied to the rest of the country’s grids, the problem would have been much milder. Maybe they’ll rethink that.

As for using the charge left in car’s batteries, I’m not sure many would have done it without a gun to their heads. Given human nature, the opposite would have happened.

[Chgogal]

Any clue how ERCOT vets the suppliers?

[Varsity Flight]

Climate Same

That’s what went wrong.

[beancounter13]

The key to your message is, “rate regulated public utility”.

We got rid of that in Texas back in 1998. Deliberately. Since then, we have enjoyed the lowest prices for power anywhere within the U.S. Yes, this week has been a challenge and much needs to change.

I, for one, would not advocate going back to the old model.

[beancounter13]

Yes, Texans like their independence. I don’t think there will be much support for us tying into the other interconnection grids.

We certainly don’t want to supply power to support CA blackouts when CA activity pushes generation out of state. The eastern grid has its own problems as well.

The reality is that truly market-based energy could not be offered in Texas without ERCOT being a stand-alone entity.

[aquila48]

“Texas is about as free from regulation as possible. The only regulated part is transmission. Generators bid the energy they sell, and retailers bid what they sell. In such a market, can you really ‘demand’ a generator limit the amount of product they sell?”

Not free enough. It doesn’t allow “free trade” of electricity with the other states because it has its own closed grid. I’m not sure whose bright idea that was, but I got a feeling they’ll rethink that.

If they had been able to import electricity, the problem would have been much milder. Not only that, but, from what I understand, because Texas has so much wind power capacity it often happens that the spot price of electricity drops to almost zero, even NEGATIVE!

https://slate-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/slate.com/business/2015/09/texas-electricity-goes-negative-wind-power-was-so-plentiful-one-night-that-producers-paid-the-state-to-take-it.amp?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQHKAFQArABIA%3D%3D#aoh=16137503824686&amp_ct=1613750409346&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fslate.com%2Fbusiness%2F2015%2F09%2Ftexas-electricity-goes-negative-wind-power-was-so-plentiful-one-night-that-producers-paid-the-state-to-take-it.html

If it was connected to the outside grids that over capacity could be sold to the other states, making things better for everyone.

[jospehm20]

My power never went out so maybe wherever we get power from was winterized. I suspect that it won’t get down to 1 degree F around here again for quite a while but I could be wrong.

[beancounter13]

There are certain minimum requirements for a supplier to sell power into the market, and for the most part, anybody that meets those requirements can sell the power. The system is designed so that you can sell as much power as you can deliver if you can provide it at the lowest cost.

This has allowed innovation beyond imagination. It began with all the little companies offering co-gen plants back in the ‘90s. Plants that could quickly come on line to meet demand and then be efficiently idled when demand faded away. It has also enabled suppliers to bring wind and solar online, and some are working on battery plants, too.

The system works pretty well in most cases. Yes, we have had winter events before, such is 2011 when the SuperBowl froze. This though, was the first time since 1899 that ALL of Texas was hit by the weather. That is why it was unplanned. I am certain, many companies are adjusting their planning practices as we type.

[KC Burke]

I think it is up to each generator to vet the suppliers. ERCOT appears more to be a coop board created by the generating utilities to have some oversight in reliability.

[beancounter13]

I disagree with your baseline assessment.

Arguing with we can have ‘free trade’ with providers in other states is like arguing we can have ‘free trade’ with a communist country like China.

Other states have regulated electricity markets just has China regulates all of its market.

[Varsity Flight]

sugar is glucose (C6H12O6)):

6 CO2 (g) + 6 H2O (l) ⇾ 6 O2 (g) + C6H12O6 (aq)

Climate Same

Thank you Carbon!!

[KC Burke]

Ah, I was familiar with a fairly free but rate regulated system as in Missouri and Kansas.

Thanks for the insight.

I like this 2011 report on that freeze event for some insight in how the variability of wind generation played into the problems of winterization capital costs for the ramp-able Gas system.

Long read and technical but worth it. I forget who posted its Link originally.

https://www.balch.com/files/upload/NERC_8_16_2011_SW_Cold_Weather_Event_Final_Report.pdf

[WildHighlander57]

Thanks, diogenesis!

Can you post screen grabs of the other out-of-state board members ?

[aquila48]

“I disagree with your baseline assessment.

Arguing with we can have ‘free trade’ with providers in other states is like arguing we can have ‘free trade’ with a communist country like China.”

That’s what I call “cutting your nose off to spite your face” type of reasoning.

First of all we trade more goods with China than any other country. Second, all other countries have regulations, so in your eyes they’re all communist China. Thirdly, last I looked the other 49 states are not “communist China”. Fourthly, if you’re so against trading with other states that have some degree of regulations, then you must be opposed to not only the trading of electricity but any other products from the other 49 “Commie states” and all those other “Commie nations”.

I hope this shows how ridiculously narrow minded and against your own interests you are.

But if it doesn’t then you provide your own absolutely pristine, uncontaminated free market solution to the problem.

I’m curious, in Texas does each town get to set it’s own intersection light signals or traffic direction. And does each driver get to decide whether to stop or go on a red light or stop sign, or are there evil, commie government regulations and laws that dictate those standards?

[beancounter13]

For the most part I am happy with free trade, but let’s consider the end game of connecting the Texas grid to one of the other grids in the U.S.

During times of excess capacity, as you mentioned, excess production would be sold off to other states so Texas would not enjoy any benefits of lower energy prices. Texans would have to pay the same rates as everyone else.

During times of limited capacity, we would simply import capacity from other states rather than building our own additional capacity. Again, we pay the same as people in other states.

Isn’t that what ‘free trade’ with China has done, moved all of the U.S. production capacity to China?

Don’t we generally agree that this was not good for the U.S.?

[Chgogal]

“The system works pretty well in most cases.”

Critical time is not most cases. When it gets this cold the local public utility is the supplier of last resort. If the suppliers fail and the utility fails to perform the system crashes, not for a day but for many days. Industries will suffer damage and losses. Residents suffer and could very possibly die. This is not a matter to take lightly and gloss over by pointing to minimum requirements..

I was in the energy field. I have no idea what your background is. From what I can tell you give little credence to the importance of performance. In July 1995 ComED failed on the hottest days. Over 700 hundred people died in those few days.

You have a massive outage in Texas. The system failed due to piss poor planning, execution and respect for the energy grid.

Innovation my ass. The wind suppliers were not held to a high standard of performance physically as well as financially. What was the backup plan if the renewables which made between 25-40% of the portfolio would fail? Were there contracts inlace with suppliers to perform to keep the grid up? Who vets these suppliers? What are the financial consequences to the supplier if the supplier fails to perform? What entity is responsible to keep the grid up when suppliers fail to perform for all customers - residential, commercial and industrial?

[aquila48]

“For the most part I am happy with free trade, but let’s consider the end game of connecting the Texas grid to one of the other grids in the U.S.”

Doesn’t sound like it. You’re OK imposing government regulations forbidding the import and exports of electricity (but not other goods).

” During times of limited capacity, we would simply import capacity from other states rather than building our own additional capacity. Again, we pay the same as people in other states.”

How much additional capacity have you guys built over the last week? And given that Texas does not pay a utility for spare capacity, how much unused capacity do you think utilities are voluntarily going to build? And at times like these wouldn’t 99.9% of Texans be ecstatic to be paying what people in other states are paying AND not freezing their asses off.

*Isn’t that what ‘free trade’ with China has done, moved all of the U.S. production capacity to China?

Don’t we generally agree that this was not good for the U.S.? “

Ah, so now you’re in favor of government commie regulations telling you who and what you can trade with. And with less than a 3% unemployment rate before the plague hit, I wonder what those 97% were producing?

Don’t you see how your silly ideology and fear of the commie boogieman is twisting you into an incoherent pretzel?

I’m sure you fancy yourself a conservative, but you are much more of an ideologue than a conservative. Above all conservatives are pragmatists, ie doing what works, especially what’s been proven to work. Whereas an ideologue has a conception of how things must be and come hell or high water, or freezing your butt off weather, I’m going to stick with that.

BTW, I’m still waiting to hear your totally free of any “commie style” government regulations solution to Texas feast or famine energy problem. I’m looking forward to it.