Flubros and Flubras! Day 313 (a place for Flubros and Flubras)

http://www.freerepublic.com ^ | 4 February 2020 | Impimp

[CodeJockey]

I always look for the positive aspects of the shutdown being an optimistic type. One is been that during my morning commute to work I don’t have to deal with school busses.

Not that I don’t wants kids in school, but getting stuck behind one making multiple stops without being able to pass was a drag.

[impimp]

I believe in conspiracy theories...only a fool assumes that all conspiracy theories are false. Mini robots vaccinating me via a nasal swab is false.

[2aProtectsTheRest]

"Mini robots vaccinating me via a nasal swab is false."

[Laslo Fripp]

I resemble that remark🙄.

I drive a school bus in New Hampshire. Starting next week, all of the kids will be IN school every day. No more remote learning😃

But, we are on a schedule that you can set your watch by. I see the same cars every morning. On one busy street, I stop eight times. I try to pull over and wave the regulars through if I can see them. But if they tailgate, my blind spot is a box extending back 40 feet from the rear bumper.

[SecAmndmt]

https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2021/02/03/who-changes-ct-value-pcr.aspx

(...)
STORY AT-A-GLANCE
One hour after Joe Biden’s inauguration, the World Health Organization lowered the recommended PCR cycle threshold (CT), which automatically guarantees that the number of “cases,” i.e., positive PCR test results, will plummet in the days and weeks to come
(...)

[Cronos]

They do seem to be working when you compare the control cases of Norway-Denmark (combined 10 million people) and Sweden (10 million people) -- those two have the same population density (excluding Greenland), similar cultures and largely similar genetics

Yet Sweden initially went for no lockdowns while Norway-Denmark DID

The results SO FAR (yes, I agree, it's only so-far but it's been nearly a year) is stunningly in favor of lockdowns

And as of today, the cases are:

Norway: 107 deaths/million, 11,790 cases/million

Denmark: 376 deaths/million, 34,514 cases/million

Sweden: 1,187 deaths/million, 57,678 cases/million

AND economically Sweden has been equally hit by the lockdowns as norway or Denmark.

So far it looks like the lockdowns work using this example.

[Cronos]

But they haven’t peaked world wide.

in brazil they have plateaued but in Japan and china are rising again (third wave? fourth?)

The 7 day rolling average daily deaths for the USA remains at 3,300 —> yes a plateau.

In the USA the number of cases don’t seem to be “falling fast” - it seems linked to the increased natural social distancing with winter, but who knows?

[Cronos]

Not really - the number of deaths in the USA are 17% higher for 2020 compared to previous years average and 19% higher than 2019.

And the number higher is about 400K

So yes, more people have died and that’s due to Covid-19.

[impimp]

Why didn’t you include Belgium...it is nearby. They have higher deaths per million.

The goal can’t be to reduce deaths per million for comparison sake as each nation measures deaths differently...the goal is to achieve liberty.

[impimp]

My bad...u did include Belgium. But how exactly is the UK or Belgium better than Sweden?

[maddog55]

Disagree completely and any stats coming out of the CDC are pure bullshit.

[Mr Rogers]

“The 7 day rolling average daily deaths for the USA remains at 3,300 —> yes a plateau.”

If cases are down, then deaths - which lag by a couple of weeks - will come down. Pretty much inseparable.

“In the USA the number of cases don’t seem to be “falling fast”

Really? From the link I provided:

“New infections have fallen 45% in the US and 30% globally in the past 3 weeks”

If that isn’t fast, what is?

[ColoCdn]

Interesting chart about death rates. It would be informative to know the statistics about the decedent demographics.

In contrast, there’s a North Jutland study from December, 2020, that was even more culturally and genetically identical than the diverse sample which you cited, and which had much less of a geographical spread.

Seven municipalities were locked down, four neighboring municipalities were open. People were banned from crossing municipal borders to go to work.

From the study, “The number of Covid infections in the two groups was already falling before the onset of the heavy restrictions in the lockdown municipalities ‒ and it keeps falling just the same in both groups. In non-statistical terms: looking at identical counties, with as natural as natural experiments come, the researchers cannot detect any impact from lockdowns. Lockdowns don’t stop, slow down, or seem to affect the future spread of the disease in any way.”

The study conclusion was: “What the new study from Northern Jutland shows is that an extreme form of lockdown didn’t work in one of the most law-abiding societies in the world. Why, then, should we expect lockdowns to be effective anywhere else?”

Cheers.

[Cronos]

It would be informative to know the statistics about the decedent demographics.

Interesting but not relevant - Both Norway-Denmark and Sweden have roughly similar demographics. And the deaths are along roughly similar (older people, obese people etc) lines.

Yet the Swedish deaths per million are 4 times that of Denmark, a country that is FAR more density of population.

If one takes Denmark-Norway as one country, then one reaches the same population density as Sweden - and then it is even more damning for Sweden - a combined N-D is about 250 deaths/million - less than 1/4th that of Sweden

[Cronos]

In contrast, there’s a North Jutland study from December, 2020, that was even more culturally and genetically identical than the diverse sample which you cited, and which had much less of a geographical spread.

could you share this study.

However, the genetic spread of the N-D and Swedish populations are far less different than many states in the USA.

[Cronos]

“The number of Covid infections in the two groups was already falling before the onset of the heavy restrictions in the lockdown municipalities ‒ and it keeps falling just the same in both groups. In non-statistical terms: looking at identical counties, with as natural as natural experiments come, the researchers cannot detect any impact from lockdowns. Lockdowns don’t stop, slow down, or seem to affect the future spread of the disease in any way.”

Do you have a link to the original study, that would be an interesting read.

Furthermore, this is talking about adjacent counties in the same densely packed area of a densely packed country. It's not the same as comparing N-D to S

Nor does it say more (at least in the excerpt you sent) than that extreme lockdowns don't work- which is different from saying that lockdowns don't work

[Cronos]

Belgium and the UK are not good comparisons to Sweden.

“Nearby” doesn’t matter when you have different population genetics and a way different density of population

Belgium has a population of 11.5 million in 30.7K km2 = 383/sq km population density

Sweden has a population of 10.1 million in 450.3K km2 = 25.4/sq km population density

Belgium is lovely to visit - Brugge, Bruxelles, Antwerp, Ypres etc. are all max 2 hours away from each other. Sweden isn’t the same.

For a pandemic, the population density matters.

btw, UK’s population density is 275 people per sq km and demographically quite distinct from both Belgium and the Scandinavian countries

[Cronos]

They aren’t pure bullshit. You have no reason to say it so.

[Cronos]

The drop is similar to the summer drop. This thing comes in waves - look at the spike in cases in Japan and China now.

[impimp]

The biggest difference between western countries is how aggressively they label the deaths as Covid. There are cities in Sweden and cities in Belgium so you can do a city versus city comparison. But I don’t know what your point is. My point is that it is all overblown hype and no government intervention is needed.