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To: AnotherUnixGeek
I got a sore arm after my flu shot. It wasn't newsworthy. This isn't either.

Neither is getting the sniffles and feeling slightly headache-y for a few days - which is what more than 99% of all persons suffering Covid-19 experience.

And that doesn't even account for those persons suffering absolutely NO symptoms.

Regards,

86 posted on 02/03/2021 11:56:37 PM PST by alexander_busek (Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.)
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To: alexander_busek

Where are you getting 99%?

Present data shows a CFR of around 1.7%. CDC estimates infections at around 80 million, including asymptomatics, so, that’d be an IFR of 0.567%. But, that’s just the fatalities. Serious cases will be MUCH higher. Probably 5x or more.

Then look at the resolved case fatality rate. That’s been hanging at ~3% for some time. Again, probably divide by 3 for a resolved IFR rate, but again, serious cases will be much higher.

A big fly in the ointment is unresolved cases. There are roughly 9.5 million of them out there. Obviously some of these are case tracings lost, and some are in-progress non-severe cases. Trying to estimate how many non-severe cases are active is quite difficult, but I came up with a generous, I think, case length of 15 days for mild cases, multiplied by ~200k cases per day, recently, resulting in 3 million non-severe unresolved active cases. I’m guessing some of the “lost” cases are mild and therefor included in “non-severe unresolved cases”, but, what the heck, I’ll toss in another 2.5 million to combine the categories, and subtract that from the 9.5 million. That leaves us with 4 million severe cases yet to be resolved, which by itself is 5% of the 80 million infected so far.

Other usually fairly reliable web sources estimate 10-20% of infections result in serious or worse illness. Some of that (WebMD) is old data, but surveying what I’ve been able to come up with from a couple church congregations, and adjusting for their older demographic, 10% is not an unreasonable figure. In addition, every person I personally know of who has had serious symptoms has had serious effects lasting 2 months or more.

Sources: Worldometers, CDC, John’s Hopkins, various long time / well known health websites (Harvard Health, WebMD, etc.), personal local observations of an area with modest case rates.

Now, you can dismiss all that published data, or how I interpret it, but I can’t dismiss what I see around me happening to actual people with names. No way is this remotely close to plague, etc., but, it IS considerably nastier than any recent flu.


88 posted on 02/04/2021 2:32:54 AM PST by Paul R. (You know your pullets are dumb if they don't recognize a half Whopper as food!)
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