The incubation period of Covid-19 is 2 to 14 days, and the average is 5 days.
The time to death in a fatal case is 2 to 6 weeks after infection.
Thus, new case and death data reflect the Covid-19 transmission environment of the past. The downward trend of new cases has been going on for a week, meaning that decreased transmission has been going on since three weeks ago.
One thing I’ve noticed lately is a drop in the number of people pulling their masks down below their noses. The decrease of people wearing masks so incorrectly alone accounts for the drop in new cases.
There have not been enough people vaccinated yet to have any effect of herd immunity.
In other words, the drop in new cases has nothing to do with the president. The cases are counted in the same way—the way CDC, WHO, and other health agencies count disease cases is not a function of whichever politicians hold office. I don’t think many politicians have knowledge of epidemiology.
One thing I’ve noticed lately is a drop in the number of people pulling their masks down below their noses. The decrease of people wearing masks so incorrectly alone accounts for the drop in new cases.
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Get a chain-link fence as a mosquito net. It’s just as effective...
Agreed on most of your points. Although I think it is better to view the data state by state, nationally the decrease in daily new cases has been going on for almost 2 weeks now. In any event, the “lags” you describe are correct.
I suspect having several days with over 4k fatalities a day nationally has an effect, and more or less parallels people hearing of more of their friends and acquaintances getting either very ill or passing away. (I find that in my church the prayers asked for affected individuals very well reflect the general trends and numbers for our several county area.)
I don’t see much of a holidays’ surge so much as trends already baked in, BUT, after Christmas / New Years Day the transmission definitely began to decline in many states, and is reflected in the National trends. (Deaths are still much too high, but, the positive acceleration / second derivative in that curve seems to be over, thank God.)
IDK if anyone has published curves of estimated transmission over time, esp. on a state by state basis, but, such would be quite useful in discussion of the pandemic.
Jan. 19, 2021 CDC estimated(!) 83.1 million people in the US had been infected by COVID-19, 70.4 million with at least some symptoms. This is actually a drop from the previous report, with CDC saying they have a better estimate now. Ok... Still, if those numbers are even remotely correct, I would think SOME herd immunity effect could be discerned.
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Just think how much better off things could have gone if instead of mandates and those idiotic PSA’s on TV, etc., real education (such as about mask etiquette) and a push for plenty of N95’s for vulnerable people had been emphasized.
FWIW, I went into our local “Rural King” earlier today and they had on sale KN95 masks with a “Honeywell” brand name. $.93 each. Big crate of them.
Now... my 1st question is if these are some half-assed Chinese copy having nothing to do with the US company “Honeywell” (who might actually have some QC in place)? Isn’t anyone like Consumer Reports, the FDA, or the CPSC looking at this sort of thing?
Do these actually have the electret charged polyester fibers inside (which DO give very effective entrapment of even aerosolized virus particles)?
There were two slightly different types, and one has 4 roughly 0.25” dia. punch-outs near the straps attachments. Only a thin layer of the outer material covers these — I’ll want to plug those holes. (The whole idea is that I do some of the care for my 90 y/o Mom and she can’t afford for me to pick up COVID-19, or even flu, really! I’ve been using some getting really long in the tooth 3M N95’s, sterilizing them after each use. In use, a surgical mask goes over the N95 as a pre-filter to reduce dust loading up the critical fibers in the N95. So far that is working well, but I know it won’t last forever.) Finding more 3M 95’s seems to be a search for the Holy Grail, at present.
The N95s are so effective at filtering out allergens that only once while I’ve had one on since all this started have I sneezed into one. Maybe twice I felt coughs coming on but was able to lift the mask and cough into my arm. (One grocery shopper glared at my arm cough, but she relented when I pulled out my little bottle of spray alcohol & sanitized my hands. Hahaha.)