Replies

Owens still leads McAdams in Utah’s 4th Congressional District (99% Reporting)

LS to 11th_VA
Spoke with someone from SLC: “this isn’t over. They’ve gone back and forth and there are a lot of SCL precincts still out.” (i.e., not Burgess Owens precincts).

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LS to newfreep
Let’s get specific:

1) I said Trump would win with “between 320 and 340 EVs.”

Since this is horribly tainted by fraud, it’s hard to judge. At the very least he still can win with about 300 EVs. I doubt they will waste much time on fraud in MN and NV, which would give him 322, but . . .

2) I said the Rs would hold the senate at best 53-47, at worst 51-49. We are at the latter but with John James in contention and with the GA race in a runoff. So, probably right on the money.

3) I said we would come close in the House but fall short. We are now at 207 with another 7 seats likely to go R.

4) I said Trump would nationally get 12-15% of the black vote (BINGO-—12%) with another “4-5% staying home” (BINGO: the black vote was about 4% off where we can accurately measure it in FL and NC).

5) I said Trump would win FL by “2-3 points.” BINGO

6) I said Trump would “come close” to winning a majority of Hispanics in FL. (48%)

Now, since you’re so concerned I-—unlike anyone else on FR-—will actually point out to you where I was wrong:

I said Trump would carry every one of his 2016 states with a higher margin. Right in FL, MI, WI, PA, wrong in NC, AZ, GA. Almost exactly the same in NV.

Again, however, we don’t know what role fraud played in all of these. It’s entirely possible I was right across the board. For example, he lost NY by only 13 points.

He came up about 1 point lower in OH than in 2016-—but, sigh, again we don’t know what role fraud played in that.

In short, when you compare my predictions to those of virtually every pollster except Baris, they are far better.

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LS to BigEdLB
WI is pretty close. I think he’s at 20,000 now, quite doable.

MI is a lot: it’s 146,000, but again, they found 4,000 from just one machine that was in 47 locations in one county. So there is plenty of leeway there.

PA can be handled by the USSC and may be flipped even before that.

However, you are now looking at a “run the table” scenario where we have to win AZ, flip two of four (MI/MN/PA/GA). Then hope the state legislatures, seeing the fraud that went on, certify the right slate. Doable, but not easy at all.

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