The Professor predicted a Trump win in 2016. He has his “Nine Keys” theory. The problem with his keys this year are that they have been artificially manipulated rather than allowed to respond organically. The economic downturn key (majority are not blaming Trump for Covid and the 33.1% 3rd qtr numbers blow this away) is false. The societal unrest/upset key is clearly a gas light operation with BLM and Antifa. It did not organically rise from the grass roots. Flip those two keys back and his theory shows Trump winning re-election.
To the Keys theory. Alan Lichtman has Trump as not charismatic. He doesn’t count the peace deals in the Middle East or the Balkans, nor the 4 Nobel Peace Prize nominations as foreign policy successes. So 2 more keys.
There is also Norpath’s Primary Model, the new registration factor, the enthusiasm gap, the incumbent re-election rate, the Halloween mask sales, and the cookie polls among other signs of a Trump Victory.
Excellent point about the economy, covid, and riots.