The Literary Digest of 1936 actually had the foresight to do that - but they did nothing with the information.
They reported their raw estimate, which was Landon 57-43.
Had they weighted their estimates by the 1932 response, they would have improved their estimates considerably but they still would have been wrong.
I’m not sure why.
One guess I had - did some states have poll taxes that were in effect in 1932 but waived in 1936?
Just saw major Trump Car Parade in the City of Falls Church on Lee Highway Headed towards DC. I was taking my 93 year old father home after lunch at the local Irish pub. It absolutely made his day! Mine to! MAGA !!
I neglect to say that the ‘20 electorate will differ from the ‘16 electorate.
Will more Hillary voters drop out in ‘20, or Trump voters?
Polling the new voters isn’t that difficult. 18-22 year olds. Plus others.
4% of the ‘16 electorate has dropped out due to old age and death. That starts Trump at 49.6%, not 50.