I think Collins is expected to lose by several points. If she is reelected, especially by more than a razor thin margin, that will mean something. If she loses in a razor thin margin, it might mean something.
But Collins has been trailing her opponent consistently for months, as I understand it. She may not be much of a bellwether.
I know she has been down... that’s why I am watching. If she wins or is very close that’s a huge indicator it will be a very good GOP night