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The Harris Survey
For Release: Monday k~, January 24th, 1983 1983 #7
ISSN 0273-1037
MONDALE LEADS REAGAN IN TRIAL HEAT FOR THE PRESIDENCY
By Louis Harris

In a trial heat for the 1984 presidential election, former Vice President Walter Mondale is now leading President Ronald Reagan by a 53-44 percent margin. This is the first time in modern political history that an incumbent president has run behind his potential opponent so early in his term. Last April, Mondale and Reagan finished in a 48-48 percent dead heat.

This latest Harris Survey, taken by telephone between January 2nd and 5th among a cross section of 891 likely voters screened from a larger cross section of 1,254 adults nationwide, amply demonstrates just how much President Reagan has slipped. Indeed, not only has the President fallen behind among those Democratic groups where he made a strong showing in 1980, but also he is experiencing some major losses in his 1980 majority base:

—Regionally, the most decisive shifts have taken place in the Midwest, traditionally Republican, and in the West, previously viewed as Reagan country. The President now trails Mondale in the West by 56-41 percent, a complete turnaround from the 53-37 percent margin by which he swept that region in 1980. In the Midwest, Mondale now leads by 53-43 percent, another big shift from the 49-40 percent margin the President held in the last election. In the East, where Reagan won a narrow 45-42 percent plurality in 1980, he is now behind Mondale by 12 points, 54-42 percent. The South is the only region where the results are close: Mondale now holds a narrow 49-48 percent edge in the region where Reagan had a 50-44 percent plurality in 1980.

—A startling change has occurred in the suburbs, where Mondale now leads Reagan by 50-46 percent. The President won the suburbs in a three-way race in 1980 by a decisive 50-39 percent. It is virtually impossible for any Republican to win the White House without winning the suburban vote by at least 8 points. In the traditionally Demo cratic big cities, Mondale holds a commanding 63-35 percent majority, dramatically better than the 47-42 percent plurality held by Jimmy Carter in 1980. Among rural voters, Reagan and Mondale are tied at 49 percent. In the small towns, however, the President is holding on to a 51-42 percent lead.

—By political philosophy, President Reagan wins among conservatives by 59-38 percent, but this is still well below the 67-28 percent majority he held in 1980.

Among middle of the road voters, a group Reagan carried by 47-41 percent in the last presidential election, he now trails Mondale by 53-43 percent. Liberals prefer Mondale, not unexpectedly, by 79-20 percent. Most significant now is the fact that any moderate to conservative coalition seems to have disappeared, as conservatives have isolated them selves from the broad middle of the electorate.

—Among men, Reagan wins by 52-46 percent; among women, Mondale soars to a 58-37 percent lead. If the election had been held this month, Mondale would owe his victory to the strong anti-Reagan sentiments of women.

—Among union members, Mondale defeats Reagan by 60-37 percent, a 23 point margin, close to a normal Democratic majority. In 1980, Reagan lost the union vote by only 9 points in a three-way race, 51-40 percent.

—As expected, the President would win the Republican vote, but his current 79-16 percent margin is considerably lower than the 85-9 percent by which he won that vote in the last election. Mondale sweeps the Democratic vote by 82-17 percent, a much stronger showing than the 69-23 percent held by Carter in 1980. Among political independents,