Posted on 10/26/2020 9:21:46 AM PDT by ThinkingBuddha
If this math pertains to national popular vote, it’s sort of irrelevant, isn’t it?
Regardless, I’m confused by your 114k number and also where your 1.5 and 2.5 day projections are coming from. Not sure drawing a point-forward linear trend for early voting turnout is valid because of staggered EV openings and deadlines, not to mention arbitrary rules on when ballots must be postmarked/counted. Maybe your analysis is more nuanced than I’m giving it credit for? I do hope you’re right.
Isn’t that just early voting?
Out of curiosity, why do you do that? Why not vote on Election Day if you’re already showing up to drop a ballot off?
113,000 was Trump’s victory margin in FL. They need to beat that.
88,000 was the D advantage going INTO election day in FL, or 201,000 total to get to zero.
Rs now cranking out a about +5,000 to +6,000 votes PER HOUR. At this rate, in about 2.5 days, Rs will have erased the entire lead. We have five days.
To your point: at his rally in Allentown, Trump asks, “How many of you have voted early?”
“Oh, about three of you.” (No cheers).
“How many of you are voting on election day?”
Massive cheer, virtually everyone in the arena.
Ohhh your analysis was just for Florida. Got it.
I’ll still challenge your 5-6k votes per hour assumption. The excited Trumpers probably already voted so I’d expect that rate to decline precipitously as we approach Nov 3. What is the Dems vote per hour number? I presume your 5-6k figure isn’t NET for the GOP?
That is a net gain of 5-6,000 Republican votes per hour. Hence, 2-2.5 days to reach parity.
There is really no early voting in Pennsylvania. This year for the first time they have setup some sites to drop off mail in ballots or request a mail in ballot and fill it out on the spot. The vast majority of Republicans in Pennsylvania do not trust mail in ballots. The Democrats in Pennsylvania are famous for cheating.
IF we can maintain that trend, which seems highly unlikely IMO.
Even if it declines 20% a day, we should still reach parity by Election Day.
California stopped giving away the “I Voted” stickers in absentee ballots. I wanted the sticker, so I started to drop it off.
Don’t look now, but it’s soared to 5,000 per HALF HOUR.
By golly, seems that the hourly rate is indirectly proportional to my negativity/skepticism! I’ll keep it up.
Only one state (PA) has the magic 70/30 split Nate Silver says the Dems needs to overcome the GOP election day turn out. But TargetSmart as it at 65.1 to 27.6.
What is someone comes in and votes in my name. Would that cancel out my mail in ballot?
Or what if they mail in ballots for everyone in the county? Would they all be voided or canceled?
It may sound ridiculous but a double vote that cancels out a Trump vote helps the cheating Democrats.
How will one go about correcting a bad vote? Can we even see that we voted, in most states?
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Wondering since I heard that in many (most?) precincts late votes (military, overseas) are not counted if it won't change the outcome of an election.
In AZ no way that can happen as you must show ID
This is silly. What about WV. What’s the breakdown there? If there are more Democrats voting (likely) the assessment, based in this thread, is that Trump would be in trouble in WV. The numbers could never pick up a landslide (not saying that’s going to happen) because if Dems in PA are all in for Trump how would you know?
Wiseprince, I am just reporting what Nate Silver says. As for the numbers, you can go to targetearly.targetsmart.com. It has frequently updated numbers for each state. For example, as of this morning, West Virginia shows a split of: 36.8 (dems)/47.2 (GOP).
The splits in each state indicate the level of intensity on each side. WV has been trending red for a long time, so the 11 point gap in favor of the GOP is not a surprise to me. So when I see the GOP up in battlegrounds like Ohio (+4.2) that is great news.
And, you make a great point, it only indicates party registration. It cannot take into account legacy dems who are voting Trump and vice versa. In many cases, legacy dems are folks who registered as dem a long time ago and never changed their registration but may have drifted in who they tend to support.
I hope this is helpful for you. Go to the website and check it out. Not my website. It’s a dem consulting firm actually.
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