Posted on 10/15/2020 3:41:27 PM PDT by TealsGuy17
I figure it’s to be expected with the bad year Trump has had, and the country. And how the 2018 election went. And with doubling down to appeal to his base instead of trying to expand his base etc
Media polls exist to shape opinions not to reflect them.
“And lets face it, you don’t answer polls when you are not home.”
Gaslighting
All it really does is give Democrats a reason to not make the effort to vote since “Biden has it in the bag”. These polls only serve to motivate Republicans to get out and vote in person.
I do not recall a Republican presidential candidate ever being ahead in the polls.
IBD/TIPP got 2016 right. They are doing a tracker poll this year and the number changes every day. Was B+10 the other day; today B+8. Next week?
All the polls over the last 10 days all have what is called “response bias” in them. Candidate supporters disengage after a crisis (in this case, 3 crises...SC nom, debate, Trump covid hysteria caused by a media meltdown.) Which is why good pollsters try to wait for calm after the crisis before going out in the field.
This pollster (Democracy Initiative) is very good...got 2016 right and Brexit...:-) He says it is T+1
But, in any case, in a week or so many pollsters will be “herding.” That is when they deliberately move their numbers to be close to where other polls are.
I sure as hell don’t! Trump by a comfortable margin.
Narrow? He had 307 EVs 2016. 37 EVs over minimum.
Helmet Northrup Model predicts Electoral College: Trump - 362 and Biden - 172. It has had very good predictive results including Trump win in 2016.
Yep but didn’t he win Michigan by 10,000 votes? Democrats will make sure Biden gets 100,000 extra votes from Detroit alone
well sure, that’s true. But that wouldn’t explain why liberals would be more likely not to screen pollsters out. My explanation explains that because of COVID, a disproportionate number of liberals are home along with the few Republicans that are scared. This is making the polls a poll of those scared of Covid, and not of the electorate in general.
Partisan Media Shills regurgitate DNC talking points. That's gonna burn them at the ballot box, and in their steady decline as they circle the white wishing well and slide down to the cloaca maxima.
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