[Disestablishmentarian]

What I’m really seeking is a statistical grounding for the argument that I use for the shrinking number of liberal friends that I have. When they complain about the rise in cases, my response is to point out that the death rate has declined, so that either cases aren’t really rising, or the data is wrong. Some times that ends the discussion, sometimes they revert to Orange Man bad, etc. I’d like to back that Argument up with data, if it were possible.

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I am willing to bet that your "Liberal" friends believe the global warming hoax, the Russia-collusion hoax, the FAKE NEWS (AT&T-CNN etc.), and that Marxist fronts like BLM & ANTIFA are "Peaceful demonstrators" while white supremacists are responsible for the nightly rioting. They may even have a soft spot for socialism--against all conceivable logic.

So please explain to me how a statistical analysis is going to educate them?

Having said that, I do think the data is too corrupted right now for the type of analysis you have outlined to produce anything credible.

TO BE MORE SPECIFIC: There is certainly a relationship between (i) cases, (ii) mortality rate and (iii) deaths. If you have any two of these accurately, the third can be easily derived.

But in the current situation, I do not have confidence in a single one of these.

Earlier in the process, I chose CASES as my primary focus, thinking that genuine RNA tests were a lot less "subjective" than Chinavirus "Deaths" ... which almost always involved multiple causes and motivations both political and financial for reporting agencies to miscount.

But then ... the CASES went totally out of whack.

Sigh.

Figures never lie, but liars figure.

[smileyface]

Earlier in the process, I chose CASES as my primary focus, thinking that genuine RNA tests were a lot less “subjective” than Chinavirus “Deaths” ... which almost always involved multiple causes and motivations both political and financial for reporting agencies to miscount.
But then ... the CASES went totally out of whack.
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Sorry Dis, but I can run my little PCR machine all nite long and make any sample I want result in a positive case. The Ab test appears to be for coronavirus, a known cause of the common cold, thus another + case in many people. So, the testing can be rigged. The case + can be rigged. The death by/with COVID can be rigged. People are +, without symptoms (if so the virus is meaningless in that person).

ALL of the numbers can be fudged. The whole house of cards should fall.

I appreciate your daily numbers to track the viral news, but they are not a good reflection of illness reality.