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***It’s likely she would have blamed the downing of AF1 on a Russian missile***

Perhaps... but they would have had to suppress the weather web cam video.

Here is a map of where the weather cam is located {red circle} and how it is aimed at Whidbey Island.

A wider view; the weather cam is on the promontory on a line north from the '-ea-' in Seattle

This shows that the location of the launch is a confined channel; countermeasures could have been deployed fairly effectively - I think - from Ault Field, Whidbey Island {Naval Air} Station (CDP).

Here is the mp4 video of the {TIME LAPSE} event:
http://www.skunkbayweather.com/WhidbeyMissile.mp4
There are a number of light passes from right to left of frame up to :38 seconds; at :38 seconds a strange light begins to appear center frame and brightens; at :40 seconds that light also begins to appear at the far left of frame. At that moment an extremely bright light {helicopter?} appears at lower left frame and speeds across the bottom rapidly; then a lesser light {helicopter???} progresses from the right of frame towards the left AND the sky on the left grows brighter and brighter resulting in the appearance of the missile exhaust flame shooting upwards.

Bear in mind that this is not a continuous video but a camera that takes a picture - according to The Drive - every 40 seconds so while the motion appears to be continuous there is a considerable lapse of time overall.

In my somewhat non-expert opinion what is captured is a missile launch, probably from a sub just east of southern Whidbey Island. Most of the lights passing across the lower screen could be normal night traffic - note that there is a road that runs the length of Whidbey Island. Then likley the extreme bright light - given that the camera is set for viewing at night - moving from left of frame towards the right would be the helicopter with its search light left on.

There is a BIG problem with using a US ship or submarine to shoot a missile at a civilian aircraft. It's called the CREW. The captain can not do this alone. He may give the command but he doesn't do the targeting or firing. There are other officers and enlisted that do the actual work.

You can NOT launch a missile from a ship/sub without EVERYONE onboard knowing about it. Trust me on this one. Even putting a war shot on active for vertical launch would be a memorable moment for everyone in CIC.

Do you really think that everyone onboard would be silent if their ship/sub was involved in an attack on POTUS? I don't.

Then there is the little problem of accounting for the expended missile. I imagine that there would be some pretty serious inquiry following an attack on POTUS whether successful or not.

The enlisted members might be legally shielded from obeying an illegal order but any other officer involved would not be. They are expected to know what is an illegal order and not to follow it.

Not on my watch, not on my ship, not in my Navy.

WWG1WGA

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

That’s a good analysis of the lights in the image.

I don’t imagine anyone could just board a sub and launch a missile. That same person might not know anything about the placement of weather cams. If criminals and derps thought of everything, none of them would ever be caught.

If they’d been successful in shooting down AF1, you can bet any and all evidence would be destroyed as it surfaced and the person(s) who found it would have an unfortunate accident.