Posted on 09/04/2020 1:28:28 PM PDT by Conserv
Independents outnumber both major parties, for one thing.
Yes. The political makeup of the country in terms of party registration is at issue. Some say it’s 33D-32R-35I.
Gallup has it a 1 point D lead nationally. Any poll that has a sampling +5 D is purely bogus. I think anything more than D+2 is bogus. In states like OH, it should be R+2; FL D+1; AZ R+1 and so on depending on the registrations.
Well, I haven’t seen any evidence that the Republicans are even making a fight for the House.
Would sure cheer me up if you’ve seen some.
Thank you for the explanation and as I’m in Tucson, how is AZ shaping up? McSally have a chance? Trump?
I got a Heritage poll (now three weeks old) showing Trump up several and McSally, despite trailing by 6 in “image,” was tied in “Who will you vote for.”
Also 67% blamed China for the China Virus. Probably a R-sponsored poll, but still, encouraging.
Baris says the primaries showed Maricopa Co is now +2 to +3 R. If that’s the case, McSally can win.
You’re looking in the wrong place. Don’t look at the NRCC.
Look at individual races.
Burgess Owens is ahead in his UT4 race. One buried poll, I’m hearing, is by 9-10 points.
OK5 is an almost certain flip.
There are 2-3 districts in PA that are looking very good.
CA25 is a hold, but was a flip last year; Van Drew will win (he was a party switch). Young Kim in CA21 an almost certain flip. There are 2-3 other seats in CA alone that are very possible flips. Hearing that the WA race that was flipped in 2018 is turning the other way. Same with NM2, where NM State will not be in session or on remote in large part (this was a 4,000 vote victory for the D, NM State has 4,000 D students alone.)
We haven’t even talked 2 seats in TX, 2-3 in FL, almost a sure flip in VA; another flip (Andy Kim’s seat) in NJ; 1-2 in NY; 1 in IL; 2 in IA; and so on.
When you go through the individual races, I think right now we are sitting on 10 sure flips and only need 8 more.
Finally remember that 30 (!!!) seats flipped to the Ds in 2018 by 2% or less, 20 by 1% or less.
Why don’t the republicans make a case how Mark Kelly took millions from the Chinese after he shafted the people of Pima Co.? I keep waiting to see an ad here in Tucson but they just run an ad how McSally is against pre existing condition coverage. They better wake up here.
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