Posted on 09/04/2020 1:28:28 PM PDT by Conserv
Donald Trump is now leading with Independents by ten points, Black and Hispanic voters support for Trump spiked after the GOP convention, and the national race is tightening up. Trump is tied with Biden in Michiganand enthusiasm for Trump with his base is sky-high. Joe Biden is not fairing so well with Democrats on that front. They know he sucks.
While two months ago, the retaking the house might have seemed like a stretch, but if these lefty clowns keep burning buildings, assaulting cops, and forcing Democratic mayors to flee their residences, then it could be within reach. Patrick Murray commented on Monmouths polling of the House races and found that in the six most competitive contests this cycle, the generic Republican is ahead by 10 points [emphasis mine]:
The Monmouth University Poll also posed a generic ballot test for the U.S. House of Representatives election, which shows 48% of registered voters currently supporting the Democratic candidate in their district and 45% backing the Republican. This result stood at a similar 49% to 45% in Monmouths July poll. Applying likely voter models to the current sample, high turnout puts the statewide vote choice at 48% Democrat and 46% Republican while low turnout has it at 48% Democrat and 47% Republican.
In 12 congressional districts where the winning margin for either party was greater than 15 points in 2018, the Democrats lead by 8 points (51% to 43%). In the six most competitive districts, though, the Republicans lead by 10 points (50% to 40%). In July, the Democrats held small leads in both the safe seats (49% to 46%) and the competitive ones (48% to 43%).
Republican gains on the generic ballot in competitive seats should worry Democrats. Only district-level polling can tell if this is because GOP incumbents are bulking up their margins or if GOP challengers are eating into support for Democratic incumbents
We still have a longs way to go, but with Labor Day upon usmore folks start to pay attention. If the mayhem in the streets, thanks to leftists continues, expect more shifts across the board. Also, the economy bouncing back, and those three debates could also change the race.
Independents outnumber both major parties, for one thing.
Yes. The political makeup of the country in terms of party registration is at issue. Some say it’s 33D-32R-35I.
Gallup has it a 1 point D lead nationally. Any poll that has a sampling +5 D is purely bogus. I think anything more than D+2 is bogus. In states like OH, it should be R+2; FL D+1; AZ R+1 and so on depending on the registrations.
Well, I haven’t seen any evidence that the Republicans are even making a fight for the House.
Would sure cheer me up if you’ve seen some.
Thank you for the explanation and as Im in Tucson, how is AZ shaping up? McSally have a chance? Trump?
I got a Heritage poll (now three weeks old) showing Trump up several and McSally, despite trailing by 6 in “image,” was tied in “Who will you vote for.”
Also 67% blamed China for the China Virus. Probably a R-sponsored poll, but still, encouraging.
Baris says the primaries showed Maricopa Co is now +2 to +3 R. If that’s the case, McSally can win.
You’re looking in the wrong place. Don’t look at the NRCC.
Look at individual races.
Burgess Owens is ahead in his UT4 race. One buried poll, I’m hearing, is by 9-10 points.
OK5 is an almost certain flip.
There are 2-3 districts in PA that are looking very good.
CA25 is a hold, but was a flip last year; Van Drew will win (he was a party switch). Young Kim in CA21 an almost certain flip. There are 2-3 other seats in CA alone that are very possible flips. Hearing that the WA race that was flipped in 2018 is turning the other way. Same with NM2, where NM State will not be in session or on remote in large part (this was a 4,000 vote victory for the D, NM State has 4,000 D students alone.)
We haven’t even talked 2 seats in TX, 2-3 in FL, almost a sure flip in VA; another flip (Andy Kim’s seat) in NJ; 1-2 in NY; 1 in IL; 2 in IA; and so on.
When you go through the individual races, I think right now we are sitting on 10 sure flips and only need 8 more.
Finally remember that 30 (!!!) seats flipped to the Ds in 2018 by 2% or less, 20 by 1% or less.
Why dont the republicans make a case how Mark Kelly took millions from the Chinese after he shafted the people of Pima Co.? I keep waiting to see an ad here in Tucson but they just run an ad how McSally is against pre existing condition coverage. They better wake up here.
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