Scratch tickets have at best a 80% RTP, and more likely a 60-70% RTP, but typically the scratch ticket player is buying only a few tickets at a time, so when the player finally does get a sizeable win, it is easy for them to think they are ahead of the game, while quickly forgetting about all those times before when they didn't win. In other words, that $250 win is likely offset by $500 or more of losses from previous sessions.
As with slots, the higher jackpots go with the higher bets. People who buy $1 tickets tend to funnel any winnings right back into buying additional cards. Just like the penny slot machine player will typically keep on spinning until they are out of money, despite having been ahead a time or two during the session.
The people I know who have won sizeable jackpots on scratch tickets ($1,000 or more) have done so on $5, $10 or more cards. I know one $500k winner who won on a $20 card. The dollar ones are pretty much crap. Don't know of any big winners on a dollar card.
We have used them on the trading floor for 35 years to motivate people to sell something. Sell a inventory truck/carload of lumber get a NH scratch ticket.
In all that time, with thousands of tickets bought by individual traders and management, we have only had one big winner($5000) off a $1 scratch ticket in 35 years.
This guy knows statistics. Simple math for some. Harder for most others. He knew that there was ONE remaining ticket for $5 million. His only issue was IF someone else bought that one ticket before he did.
This is similar to card counting in Black Jack. However, most people can not count the amount of Jacks, Queens, Kings and 10’s left in 6 decks of cards. The people who can are not allowed to visit casinos. The book “Bringing down the House” was based on MIT & Harvard math majors and the professor that figured out a system how to do this.
Other people have figured out how to beat state lottery games in the past. Most of them are math majors. Some are even college professors.