YAY!
22,876 New Cases today is right down the center of the expected NEW LINEAR channel.
A few more days will confirm this; but it appears there was a "Catch-up" of past cases yesterday. From what I could tell, it was across all states. So I'm thinking maybe someone gathered up old cases that had not entered the statistics previously and dumped them in last night.
Soooooo ... the Hypothesis is still viable that: Red States OPENING and Blue States RIOTING will not significantly impact the (gradually receding) course of the epidemic.
United States CHINAVIRUS Cases (includes "Recoveries")
Date New Total New Linear Model
Cases Cases Since
Actual Actual 5/9/2020
3/14/2020 2,717
3/15/2020 761 3,478
3/16/2020 1,167 4,645
3/17/2020 1,717 6,362
3/18/2020 1,407 7,769
3/19/2020 5,911 13,680
3/20/2020 5,605 19,285
3/21/2020 7,462 26,747
3/22/2020 8,478 35,225
3/23/2020 11,107 46,332
3/24/2020 8,816 55,148
3/25/2020 13,870 69,018
3/26/2020 16,635 85,653
3/27/2020 19,363 105,016
3/28/2020 19,448 124,464
3/29/2020 17,892 142,356
3/30/2020 22,003 164,359
3/31/2020 25,151 189,510
4/1/2020 27,005 216,515
4/2/2020 28,698 245,213
4/3/2020 32,740 277,953
4/4/2020 34,123 312,076
4/5/2020 25,544 337,620
4/6/2020 30,576 368,196
4/7/2020 31,916 400,112
4/8/2020 32,020 432,132
4/9/2020 33,618 465,750
4/10/2020 35,551 501,301
4/11/2020 31,942 533,243
4/12/2020 27,289 560,532
4/13/2020 26,623 587,155
4/14/2020 26,937 614,092
4/15/2020 30,468 644,560
4/16/2020 35,221 679,781
4/17/2020 30,550 710,331
4/18/2020 29,521 739,852
4/19/2020 24,413 764,265
4/20/2020 28,648 792,913
4/21/2020 32,128 825,041
4/22/2020 24,051 849,092
4/23/2020 37,617 886,709
4/24/2020 38,329 925,038
4/25/2020 35,858 960,896
4/26/2020 26,426 987,322
4/27/2020 23,185 1,010,507
4/28/2020 25,258 1,035,765
4/29/2020 28,807 1,064,572
4/30/2020 30,638 1,095,210
5/1/2020 36,242 1,131,452
5/2/2020 29,312 1,160,764
5/3/2020 27,358 1,188,122
5/4/2020 24,778 1,212,900
5/5/2020 24,763 1,237,663
5/6/2020 25,520 1,263,183
5/7/2020 29,440 1,292,623
5/8/2020 29,162 1,321,785
5/9/2020 25,524 1,347,309 1,347,309
5/10/2020 20,329 1,367,638 1,369,669
5/11/2020 18,196 1,385,834 1,392,029
5/12/2020 22,802 1,408,636 1,414,389
5/13/2020 21,712 1,430,348 1,436,749
5/14/2020 27,245 1,457,593 1,459,109
5/15/2020 26,692 1,484,285 1,481,469
5/16/2020 23,488 1,507,773 1,503,829
5/17/2020 19,891 1,527,664 1,526,189
5/18/2020 22,630 1,550,294 1,548,549
5/19/2020 20,279 1,570,573 1,570,909
5/20/2020 22,466 1,593,039 1,593,269
5/21/2020 27,863 1,620,902 1,615,629
5/22/2020 24,192 1,645,094 1,637,989
5/23/2020 21,734 1,666,828 1,660,349
5/24/2020 19,608 1,686,436 1,682,709
5/25/2020 19,790 1,706,226 1,705,069
5/26/2020 19,049 1,725,275 1,727,429
5/27/2020 20,528 1,745,803 1,749,789
5/28/2020 22,658 1,768,461 1,772,149
5/29/2020 25,069 1,793,530 1,794,509
5/30/2020 23,290 1,816,820 1,816,869
5/31/2020 20,350 1,837,170 1,839,229
6/1/2020 22,153 1,859,323 1,861,589
6/2/2020 21,882 1,881,205 1,883,949
6/3/2020 20,578 1,901,783 1,906,309
6/4/2020 22,268 1,924,051 1,928,669
6/5/2020 41,657 1,965,708 1,951,029
6/6/2020 22,876 1,988,584 1,973,389
6/7/2020 1,995,749
6/8/2020 - 2,018,109
6/9/2020 - 2,040,469
6/10/2020 - 2,062,829
6/11/2020 - 2,085,189
6/12/2020 - 2,107,549
6/13/2020 - 2,129,909
6/14/2020 - 2,152,269
6/15/2020 - 2,174,629
6/16/2020 - 2,196,989
6/17/2020 - 2,219,349
6/18/2020 - 2,241,709
6/19/2020 - 2,264,069
Looks like you’re right
A 7 or 10 day moving average would smooth out some of these aberrations??
That 41k sure sticks out