MAY I DIGRESS?
We are passing through a deflationary crisis in our economic system very analogous to the factors which led to the depths of the Great Depression. This is indicated by the historically low interest rates, dangerously low prices on certain commodities and services (e.g., oil), and historically high unemployment. (A major difference this time is that the Fed is not trying to clamp down on money as it did in the 1930s ... leading to some different issues.)
Nevertheless, this is the period of hard-core economic winter in what is sometimes known as the "Longwave" economic cycle (probably now extended to about 72 years).
But this time it will not take a decade or more for the economy to restart.
I think we can feel it now ... the stirrings of economic Spring.
Possibly the China crisis will become WWIII--an asymmetric war--analogous in economic cycle to WWII. But I would point out many people credit WWII with helping to pull the U.S. out of the Great Depression.
Regardless of China, economically we are AT THE CRISIS POINT, and I am certain the President knows this. If the RATS have their way, that decade-long GREAT DEPRESSION II can still occur.
POTUS KNOWS ... and that is why he is trying so hard to coax Americans to STAND UP AGAIN, and STOP LIVING IN FEAR.
Courage.
United States CHINAVIRUS Cases (includes "Recoveries") Date New Total Linear Model Cases Cases Since Actual Actual 4/2/2020 3/14/2020 2,717 3/15/2020 761 3,478 3/16/2020 1,167 4,645 3/17/2020 1,717 6,362 3/18/2020 1,407 7,769 3/19/2020 5,911 13,680 3/20/2020 5,605 19,285 3/21/2020 7,462 26,747 3/22/2020 8,478 35,225 3/23/2020 11,107 46,332 3/24/2020 8,816 55,148 3/25/2020 13,870 69,018 3/26/2020 16,635 85,653 3/27/2020 19,363 105,016 3/28/2020 19,448 124,464 3/29/2020 17,892 142,356 3/30/2020 22,003 164,359 3/31/2020 25,151 189,510 4/1/2020 27,005 216,515 4/2/2020 28,698 245,213 245,213 4/3/2020 32,740 277,953 277,216 4/4/2020 34,123 312,076 309,219 4/5/2020 25,544 337,620 341,222 4/6/2020 30,576 368,196 373,225 4/7/2020 31,916 400,112 405,228 4/8/2020 32,020 432,132 437,231 4/9/2020 33,618 465,750 469,234 4/10/2020 35,551 501,301 501,237 4/11/2020 31,942 533,243 533,240 4/12/2020 27,289 560,532 565,243 4/13/2020 26,623 587,155 597,246 4/14/2020 26,937 614,092 629,249 4/15/2020 30,468 644,560 661,252 4/16/2020 35,221 679,781 693,255 4/17/2020 30,550 710,331 725,258 4/18/2020 29,521 739,852 757,261 4/19/2020 24,413 764,265 789,264 4/20/2020 28,648 792,913 821,267 4/21/2020 32,128 825,041 853,270 4/22/2020 24,051 849,092 885,273 4/23/2020 37,617 886,709 917,276 4/24/2020 38,329 925,038 949,279 4/25/2020 35,858 960,896 981,282 4/26/2020 26,426 987,322 1,013,285 4/27/2020 23,185 1,010,507 1,045,288 4/28/2020 25,258 1,035,765 1,077,291 4/29/2020 28,807 1,064,572 1,109,294 4/30/2020 30,638 1,095,210 1,141,297 5/1/2020 36,242 1,131,452 1,173,300 5/2/2020 29,312 1,160,764 1,205,303 5/3/2020 27,358 1,188,122 1,237,306 5/4/2020 24,778 1,212,900 1,269,309 5/5/2020 24,763 1,237,663 1,301,312 5/6/2020 25,520 1,263,183 1,333,315 5/7/2020 29,440 1,292,623 1,365,318 5/8/2020 29,162 1,321,785 1,397,321 5/9/2020 25,524 1,347,309 1,429,324 5/10/2020 20,329 1,367,638 1,461,327 5/11/2020 18,196 1,385,834 1,493,330 5/12/2020 22,802 1,408,636 1,525,333 5/13/2020 21,712 1,430,348 1,557,336 5/14/2020 27,245 1,457,593 1,589,339 5/15/2020 26,692 1,484,285 1,621,342 5/16/2020 23,488 1,507,773 1,653,345 5/17/2020 19,891 1,527,664 1,685,348 5/18/2020 . 1,717,351 5/19/2020 . 1,749,354 5/20/2020 . 1,781,357 5/21/2020 . 1,813,360 5/22/2020 . 1,845,363 5/23/2020 . 1,877,366 5/24/2020 . 1,909,369 5/25/2020 . 1,941,372 5/26/2020 . 1,973,375 5/27/2020 . 2,005,378
Wow. Been several weeks since new & total were below 20k
“I think we can feel it now ... the stirrings of economic Spring.”
Thanks!
Also thanks for your excellent CV posts.