https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1260281079732166656
“We now have enough #SARSCoV2 genomic data from different states to make some broad conclusions about how the #COVID19 epidemic has unfolded in the US. 1/14”
Interesting read on spread of virus through the states!
Louisiana has a remarkably focused outbreak in which most sequenced cases appear to derive from a couple closely related introduction events.
Mardi Gras.
““Today marks the lowest number of COVID-19 positive patients currently hospitalized statewide (1,203) since hospitals began reporting this data on April 8th,” he posted Saturday.”
Also showing a low positivity rate in testing.
Of course the media, after a week of forecasting doom for Ga will not report this success (so far).
*California is interesting in that like WA, much of the outbreak is fueled by an early introduction of a lineage from Asia and then later cases derived from repeated introductions from elsewhere in the US. 7/14*
Well, that’s reassuring, and confirming that Calif did a good job locking down airports and ports. The weak link is domestic air travel.
According to a recent autopsy, a male with no known travel died in Santa Clara County on Feb 6; another Feb 17; both tested positive posthumously for CCPVirus. This means that the first ‘patient zero’ in America was not Seattle, but in California, and flying into SFO most likely.
Ruled out: On Jan 23, the female Santa Clara County non-resident ‘patient zero’ returned from Wuhan, falling ill Feb 2. On Jan 31, we had male Santa Clara County patient zero: another Wuhan traveler. This would put their travel around mid-Jan. Both voluntarily quarantined.
Ruled out: Feb 27 was the first ‘patient zero’ in Vacaville (Solano Co), later transferred to UCD Sac, with no known travel contacts. Solano Co is two counties away from Santa Clara Co.
Ruled out: March 3, was the first California death and first in the nation. He was a cruiser on the Grand Princess. His case is linked to the Seattle cases.
So it seems that Santa Clara County was the destination of California’s and the nation’s ‘patient zero,’ an asymptomatic who arrived in Dec or early Jan, resulting in the deaths on Feb 6th and 17th. Shouldn’t be too hard to track down.