I agree with both of your theories. Something didn’t pass the smell test at the very outset of this. IIRC, early on there was some footage out of Wuhan (or could’ve been elsewhere in China) that showed some folks flopping around on the street like fish out of water. The take-away (I reckon) was “See, this is what the rona does to people”.
I believe the tales of people collapsing in the street and having their doors welded shut were part of an intelligence operation to scare the west into self destructive decisions. That does NOT mean I discount back CoVid-19 as a public health threat. Just that it not an Omega Man bio weapon.