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To: bgill

I thought I heard something today that said all the numbers of dread and doom are planning numbers, not data numbers (as we have been saying)

that means they are using war game numbers, not facts.


224 posted on 05/05/2020 2:31:38 PM PDT by RaceBannon (Rom 5:8 But God commendeth his love toward us, in that, while we were yet sinners, Christ died for)
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To: RaceBannon

https://youtu.be/ICtsXNtf_GQ

PlanDemic, a film about the global plan to take control of our lives, liberty, health & freedom.


225 posted on 05/05/2020 2:57:45 PM PDT by RaceBannon (Rom 5:8 But God commendeth his love toward us, in that, while we were yet sinners, Christ died for)
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To: RaceBannon
I thought I heard something today that said all the numbers of dread and doom are planning numbers, not data numbers

I saw an interview the other day where an epidemiologist basically said they ALWAYS estimate deaths at the high end, and that has always been accepted. No one ever cared that they estimated 100K and only 80K died. On the other hand if a disease kills far more than predicted, everyone blames them for miscalculating. That said, the 1M-2M numbers of "dread and doom" were without any mitigation. Were those numbers realistic? Maybe not. But without mitigation, our numbers might be 3 to 5 times what they are. With more sensible mitigation like Sweden, maybe only 50% to 100% higher.

And speaking of miscalculating, the IHME appears to have thrown out their old model. After lowering their prediction from 100K-220K down to 60K, then raising it by a couple thousand every few days as the model missed the mark, they now have a new model, and have approximately doubled the predicted deaths to 134K, with a range almost the same as the original 100K-220K.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Also, worldometer has added smoothing in the form of a 3-day moving average to their graphs, attenuating some of the wild day to day swings to better show trends.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

229 posted on 05/05/2020 3:37:25 PM PDT by ETCM
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