[Oratam]

Future historians will look back at the extreme insanity of our times--the shameful ease with which we were stampeded into panic, the massive group delusions like Russia-Russia, and this national economic suicide pact.

I remember first hearing about "Tulip Mania" and the "South Sea Bubble" in a college economics course over 30 years ago and thought, "I wonder if we could ever experience such a widespread and nearly disastrous mass delusion in my lifetime?"

...and here we are.

[Disestablishmentarian]

I remember first hearing about "Tulip Mania" and the "South Sea Bubble" in a college economics course over 30 years ago and thought, "I wonder if we could ever experience such a widespread and nearly disastrous mass delusion in my lifetime?" ...and here we are.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Thanks for bringing up these analogies.

Even the smartest people can get sucked into group madness. EXAMPLE: Isaac Newton, one of the smartest human beings in history, lost everything in the "South Sea Bubble."

Entire nations can go bat-shit crazy too. The Third Reich comes to mind. Also the Jacobinist period of France, a precursor of Bolshevism.

These madnesses do not end well.

[Disestablishmentarian]

New Chinavirus Cases Increasing Outside of New York

The LINEAR model has not yet been violated, but NEW CASES outside of New York were 31,859 today. New York is still declining gradually.

I cannot yet spot a new particular hot spot. It's pretty diffuse.

I am not posting these numbers to be alarmist, but to be realistic. WE NEED TO ACCEPT THIS THING AND MOVE ON.

United States CHINAVIRUS Confirmed Cases

Date      	New	 Total	    Linear Model
           	Cases	 Cases	    Since
        	Actual	 Actual     4/2/2020
3/14/2020		 2,717 	
3/15/2020	 761 	 3,478 	
3/16/2020	 1,167 	 4,645 	
3/17/2020	 1,717 	 6,362 	
3/18/2020	 1,407 	 7,769 	
3/19/2020	 5,911 	 13,680 	
3/20/2020	 5,605 	 19,285 	
3/21/2020	 7,462 	 26,747 	
3/22/2020	 8,478 	 35,225 	
3/23/2020	11,107 	 46,332 	
3/24/2020	 8,816 	 55,148 	
3/25/2020	13,870 	 69,018 	
3/26/2020	16,635 	 85,653 	
3/27/2020	19,363 	 105,016 	
3/28/2020	19,448 	 124,464 	
3/29/2020	17,892 	 142,356 	
3/30/2020	22,003 	 164,359 	
3/31/2020	25,151 	 189,510 	
4/1/2020	27,005 	 216,515 	
4/2/2020	28,698 	 245,213      245,213 
4/3/2020	32,740 	 277,953      277,216 
4/4/2020	34,123 	 312,076      309,219 
4/5/2020	25,544 	 337,620      341,222 
4/6/2020	30,576 	 368,196      373,225 
4/7/2020	31,916 	 400,112      405,228 
4/8/2020	32,020 	 432,132      437,231 
4/9/2020	33,618 	 465,750      469,234 
4/10/2020	35,551 	 501,301      501,237 
4/11/2020	31,942 	 533,243      533,240 
4/12/2020	27,289 	 560,532      565,243 
4/13/2020	26,623 	 587,155      597,246 
4/14/2020	26,937 	 614,092      629,249 
4/15/2020	30,468 	 644,560      661,252 
4/16/2020	35,221 	 679,781      693,255 
4/17/2020	30,550 	 710,331      725,258 
4/18/2020	29,521 	 739,852      757,261 
4/19/2020	24,413 	 764,265      789,264 
4/20/2020	28,648 	 792,913      821,267 
4/21/2020	32,128 	 825,041      853,270 
4/22/2020	24,051 	 849,092      885,273 
4/23/2020	37,617 	 886,709      917,276 
4/24/2020	38,329 	 925,038      949,279 
4/25/2020	35,858 	 960,896      981,282 
4/26/2020	26,426 	 987,322    1,013,285 
4/27/2020	23,185 	 1,010,507  1,045,288 
4/28/2020	25,258 	 1,035,765  1,077,291 
4/29/2020	28,807 	 1,064,572  1,109,294 
4/30/2020	30,638 	 1,095,210  1,141,297 
5/1/2020	36,242 	 1,131,452  1,173,300 
5/2/2020		 .          1,205,303 
5/3/2020		 .          1,237,306 
5/4/2020		 . 	    1,269,309 
5/5/2020		 . 	    1,301,312 
5/6/2020		 . 	    1,333,315 
5/7/2020		 . 	    1,365,318 
5/8/2020		 . 	    1,397,321 
5/9/2020		 . 	    1,429,324 
5/10/2020		 . 	    1,461,327 
5/11/2020		 . 	    1,493,330 
5/12/2020		 . 	    1,525,333 
5/13/2020		 . 	    1,557,336 
5/14/2020		 . 	    1,589,339 
5/15/2020		 . 	    1,621,342