My favorite model (the first Imperial College model—https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf) anticipated significant “leakage” even under a “shutdown” scenario.
“Leakage” is not all bad—it means that the virus spreads through the population, but at a manageable rate (from the point of view of hospitalization rates).
The whole “shutdown”, “no shutdown” debate is a major oversimplification in my view.
“Shutdown” states like my CT have a lot of leakage and economic activity going on—”non shutdown” states still ban large crowds, have social distancing, and now have many folks using care (including masks at this point).
One of my big disappointments with most Freepers is that they cannot seem to understand the complexities of what is actually going on past the headlines.
Agree.
People that conclude ‘shutdown didn’t work’ don’t realize that we weren’t really ‘shutdown’ like they were in China.
It’s a travesty that we sacrificed the small businesses for the sake of Amazon and walmart.