Generally I agree, including the 14 day lag, however,
To know the future, watch the case numbers.
which for the US have been rising the last few days. I tried guesstimating off that trend (basically assuming daily cases are now "wobbling" around an average of 30k / day) and your existing prediction of almost 93.7k fatalities by 5/31 and again come in at a minimum of 100k fatalities by 4/31.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
The spike for 4/24, 38,958 new cases, got my attention as it sort of put an exclamation point on the 3 day trend. 4/24 is hopefully a data quirk - Fridays have tended to be "hot" days, reporting-wise, but even allowing for that, 4/24 would still be the 3rd consecutive rise of the daily new case number. MAYBE something more has kicked in with testing?
I'm very much crossing my fingers that 4/25 comes in below 30k daily new cases for the US...
Today's number of new cases from worldometers.info: 35,419
The spike on 4/24, of 38,958 will show up as an increase in the number of deaths in a couple of weeks if we don't have better treatment beforehand. However the uptick hasn't been that great, luckily.
For the last few days, the calculations I made on the 23rd have been running a little low - I should rerun it, but it isn't going to be too far off, unless we get a larger spike in # cases after the governors reopen their states up.
The graph below is the latest as of tonight. You can see a definite uptick for the last several days; down a bit today, thankfully:
