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Cancel the Parade.
NEW CHINAVIRUS CASES BREAK DAILY RECORD

I was just a day or two away from declaring a peak in daily growth rate had been passed. But TODAY'S SPIKE to 37,617 new cases blew that out of the water.

HERE'S THE PROBLEM: The LINEAR growth rate of about 30K new cases per day means that--absent improved treatments--every other daily statistic will also remain constant: deaths, hospitalizations, "Recoveries" etc.

CHINAVIRUS DEATHS in the U.S. are averaging 2,362 per day for the past 2 weeks.

If this death rate were to continue, it would be over 800,000 deaths in the course of a year--FAR EXCEEDING any other infectious disease and putting it in the same order of magnitude (but not per capita, since population higher) of the 2017-2018 Spanish Flu.

The President somehow got misled into predicting much lower deaths, perhaps as few as 50K. But that target was EXCEEDED TODAY.

THERE SIMPLY MUST BE A DOWNSIDE BREAK IN THE LINEAR PATTERN.

I look for this and pray for it every day.

United States CHINAVIRUS Confirmed Cases

Date    	New	Total	Linear Model
        	Cases	Cases	Since
        	Actual	Actual	4/2/2020
3/14/2020		 2,717 	
3/15/2020	 761 	 3,478 	
3/16/2020	 1,167 	 4,645 	
3/17/2020	 1,717 	 6,362 	
3/18/2020	 1,407 	 7,769 	
3/19/2020	 5,911 	 13,680 	
3/20/2020	 5,605 	 19,285 	
3/21/2020	 7,462 	 26,747 	
3/22/2020	 8,478 	 35,225 	
3/23/2020	 11,107  46,332 	
3/24/2020	 8,816 	 55,148 	
3/25/2020	 13,870  69,018 	
3/26/2020	 16,635  85,653 	
3/27/2020	 19,363 105,016 	
3/28/2020	 19,448 124,464 	
3/29/2020	 17,892 142,356 	
3/30/2020	 22,003 164,359 	
3/31/2020	 25,151 189,510 	
4/1/2020	 27,005 216,515 	
4/2/2020	 28,698 245,213 245,213 
4/3/2020	 32,740 277,953 277,216 
4/4/2020	 34,123 312,076 309,219 
4/5/2020	 25,544 337,620 341,222 
4/6/2020	 30,576 368,196 373,225 
4/7/2020	 31,916 400,112 405,228 
4/8/2020	 32,020 432,132 437,231 
4/9/2020	 33,618 465,750 469,234 
4/10/2020	 35,551 501,301 501,237 
4/11/2020	 31,942 533,243 533,240 
4/12/2020	 27,289 560,532 565,243 
4/13/2020	 26,623 587,155 597,246 
4/14/2020	 26,937 614,092 629,249 
4/15/2020	 30,468 644,560 661,252 
4/16/2020	 35,221 679,781 693,255 
4/17/2020	 30,550 710,331 725,258 
4/18/2020	 29,521 739,852 757,261 
4/19/2020	 24,413 764,265 789,264 
4/20/2020	 28,648 792,913 821,267 
4/21/2020	 32,128 825,041 853,270 
4/22/2020	 24,051 849,092 885,273 
4/23/2020	 37,617 886,709 917,276 
4/24/2020		 . 	949,279 
4/25/2020		 . 	981,282 
4/26/2020		 . 	1,013,285 
4/27/2020		 . 	1,045,288 
4/28/2020		 . 	1,077,291 
4/29/2020		 . 	1,109,294 
4/30/2020		 . 	1,141,297 
5/1/2020		 . 	1,173,300