How can you say we’ve peaked when we’re about to record the most COVID-19 deaths in a single day?
Once a case exists, there are two possible outcomes, recovery or death. Both those outcomes are lagging indicators, they are the last things to happen in every case.
New case rates are the leading indicator. Serious/critical cases is an indicator of severity. In many states and counties, new cases are declining.
Looing at total USA deaths doesn’t tell you anything useful. Some states went into the case curve later than others. The curve has been pretty consistent in time. Different states are more or densely populated. There are areas that have had few or no cases and those cases have recovered. It’s interesting to watch states move up and down the list. I’m in Colorado, which has gone from 5th highest in cases to 17th in about 4 weeks.
See #48