I am expecting the Northeastern states numbers (cases and deaths) to gradually go down over the next month or so.
Meanwhile, I would anticipate the southern (and perhaps some other) states that open up will start going up in cases in the next couple of weeks, and up in deaths in the next month or so.
The other X factor is urbanization. Rural states should generally be OK as long as they continue to ban large gatherings.
Cities to watch in the next month include Atlanta, the Tennessee large cities and Las Vegas if they open up for business.
I agree with that. The models all seem to show a bell curve that tapers off as fast as it rose. While NY might look that way alone, there are a lot of other cities and states at various places in their own curve, along with different policies to fit their own politics, economies, and pain thresholds. It took us 13 days to get from 300 deaths/day to 2,000. It’s going to take a lot longer than that to get back down. It could take a while to drop below 1K/day.