and from the actual on the ground collected patient data, the figure is .1 to .36
+++++
At this point that is pure speculation based on estimates of the actual infected population size.
Counting bodies is pretty straightforward. Counting those that died who were hospitalized with the Coronavirus is more difficult but unless there is a massive, worldwide conspiracy to over-count deaths from the virus we have to believe the published data is at least close to accurate.
Counting the total infections in the population requires 330,000,000 tests over a short period of time. That has not been done. What has been done is to count those who went to the doctor and were tested, many of whom were admitted to a health facility for treatment.
So what we have measured for the infected population is less than 1,000,000. What we measure for a death rate is about 4%. Since we don’t really know how many people have been infected already we know the rate will be less than that. But nobody knows how much less. Nobody.
If the real death rate is .1% there must be 39 people infected for everyone that has been identified. That may turn out to be the case. I hope it is but there is no evidence that it will be that low.
Vaccines and a really effective treatment will be how we get to your number. Not there yet.
How they get an approximation of Covid deaths isn’t real complicated.
Because the flu comes around every year we know approx. how many deaths to expect each month due to the flu.
So this season we count the number of monthly respiratory deaths, and subtract the expected number of flu deaths from that total. Anything leftover will get attributed to something other than flu, this year meaning Covid.
If Covid isn’t doing much then the expected flu deaths will be about equal to the total deaths, and there won’t be much of anything left over to blame on Covid. In NYC this season the residual number of deaths after subtracting for flu is very large.
Actually according to estimates the number of CV infections is far more than the confirmed cases, and that for the vast majority the infection is no more severe than a cold or they have no symptoms. Which means that the fatality rate based upon confirmed cases is about as accurate as counting the number of drunk drivers only based upon how many are tested.
For it is estimated that about 80% of those infected with Covid-19 experience a mild case [WHO said the like] – about as serious as a regular cold – and recover without needing any special treatment. Meanwhile a study in Iceland reports that as of April 11, the country has “tested 10% of its population for coronavirus - a figure far higher than anywhere else in the world -” [and with fatality rate of about 0.4%] and that “about half of its citizenry at any given time who have coronavirus but don't know it, will be asymptomatic” (show no symptoms), which is “a large percentage many experts studying the virus have suspected, but have had little firm data to corroborate.”
Another report is that those who are most vulnerable to death from Covid-19 are the aged with certain other heath conditions, thus 80 percent of US coronavirus deaths are people 65 and older. Then again, America murders over 2,000 of the most vulnerable souls a day (2017: https://www.guttmacher.org/fact-sheet/induced-abortion-united-states), while (for perspective) about 90 people die each day in the US from crashes, which are among the over 7,000 Americans who die every day in the US from a wide range of causes. (https://www.weisspaarz.com/leading-causes-death-by-state/)