No, I want people out of their houses. But I think it’s illogical to deliberately kill 40 or 100 million people in the name of attempting herd immunity. There is no guarantee what number is immunity. Or how many nations would be completely depopulated as herd casualties so that 1 Billion of 9 Billion humans survives (10% herd immunity). Which is why I’d be more concerned with identifying the ASs - the shedders - than with the antibodied.
The current model being talked about is let the shedders and the antibodied mix, and keep the never-infected at home. I don’t like that model one bit. It’s not smart. Number one because we don’t know what ‘immunity’ means yet. Is it 30 days? 45 days? 100 days? a lifetime? Big gamble. And number two, those never-infected-and-at-home are the business owners. No them, no businesses.
Going back to Calif as an example, the longest we know of testing positive is 37 days DP fella. Some Califs are at or have exceeded that mark. One would think that after 37+ days, the asymptomatics would have been outed by those they live with - as their roommate or family get sick from close exposure to an asymptomatic. And we’re clearly seeing that with the jump in cases testing positive. Same as our initial cases were close-contact only.
So we identify the AS and their family members/housemates, and isolate those folks (statistically in calif about 10% - 20%). Until they test negative. Sucks for them to do another 40 day stretch but it’s a huge positive for the rest of the population. And we go back to contact-tracking.
The antibodied aren’t going to make folks sick (hopefully) and those who’ve never been exposed aren’t either, so the rest of the country goes back to work, starting with the lowest case numbers per county and working up. Large companies like Apple, Twitter & Google Amazon, Wallyworld, PG&E, the breweries, the meat packers, all the large outfits, do testing inhouse for the next 60 days.
I would also change grocery shopping - submit an order, pick up curbside on the way home. If the number of workers getting sick are an indication, we are getting community spread from grocers, so we change it to curbside, which does seem to be working to prevent sickness in fastfood/restaurant takeout places).
(HIV was just an example of a virus that ppl ‘let burn’ by politicizing research)
You have good ideas, but I do not think those cover all issues:
Antibodies might not work as well as people hope: Researchers do not know how long the antibodies provide immunity. Some are stating it is only a few months. patients who have been cure and tested negative are getting re-infected. Also in my last posting there is no guarantee we will have a vaccine in the next 5 years, maybe longer
antibodies article
How are we going to feed people during this lock down. The food supply chain is already starting to break. Your curbside grocery pick up will be limited on what food is available.
People are getting infected at the meat packing plants.
Meat Packing plants
Expect disruptions in food supply. You can also find where the experts expect global shortages.
Food disruptions Opinion
60 days of shelter at home is to long for the average American. You and I might be able to stay home for sixty day but the average young American live pay check to pay check with no retirement check or social security check coming in.
How will people pay for a roof over their head and food while being lock down. We are a service industry, my people are not essential workers.
Can you afford to be quarantined
Government only can afford to give out so much money before they are broke. The government needs people to work in order to bring in more money to pay out. If the government goes broke say good by to government pensions, Medicare and social security. They will start by cutting those.
Last of all I did not want to mention before,
a long shelter in place will destroy the United States The folks who lose their homes and not able to feed their families will not back President Trump this Fall. This could lead to the fall of the United States. You have people in parts of the country not effected by the virus with low hospital rates, who believe all the conspiracy theories and the Coronavirus is a hoax created by the Democrats.
There is no guarantee cure, but we do have treatment options now that we did not have before to lower the death rates. I believe we must start opening up areas not effected by the virus around May 1st to help with the issue listed above. Texas has already announce they are opening for business. Somebody got to work to provide the USA Government with cash flow and food for the rest of the country, we can not all hide at home. We must go out to fight (work) to survive for the future generations.