repost sort of from yesterday
Here is the model the WH likes to use
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
60,000 deaths .....down from 120K
the issue I see with it is that the slope may be too steep after the peak with decreasing deaths per day
plus no deaths after June 15th and only 60 total June 1-14
you can see this error in Italy ...which served as some of the original data input for the model
https://covid19.healthdata.org/italy
Italy projection for 4-9 was 384 actual 570 (plus almost 4000 new cases...)
I think you are right...
And Italy’s actual numbers yesterday may be even more than that:
“In Italy, since the beginning of the Coronavirus epidemic, at least 143,626 people have contracted the Sars-CoV-2 virus (+4,204 more than yesterday for a 3% growth). Of these, 18,279 (+610, + 3.4%) died and 28,470 (+1,979, + 7.5%) were discharged.”