Your estimates do not allow for the 50% asymptomatic. If half the US catches CV19, and half of those don't know it because they have no symptoms, and 1% of those who know or think they have it die, that's 825,000 deaths.
My 3.2% is based on #cases from worldometers.info. I'm guessing their figures are based on those who test positive but I'm not real sure about that. More likely, worldometers just uses what the locale gives them in way of data.
So, the CFR (ratio) I'm deriving may change, a lot in fact. This is dynamic. There are many factors at play and each factor is subject to change. If you look at Italy's CFR, on the graph I posted, it's around 12! I guessing that's partially due to a collapse in HCS driving up the death rate - collapse of HCS being another factor.
Your comments and points are greatly appreciated and encouraged. I generally look forward to being corrected so that I may increase my knowledge of a subject for the sake of passing accurate and timely information to others.
Again, I'm using the same case numbers most everyone else is - just doing the simple math based on the available data for the calculations above. My more complex is about 200k but it's been some time since I have evaluated what factors have changed. And frankly, I'm a bit disappointed that the number of deaths haven't fallen more, due to new treatments, continued unavailability of appropriate PPE, and people in the US not taking CV more seriously - all factors in a final death toll.
My last projection was for 10 April of 17,328. I'll try to update my figures tomorrow night based on where the ND/TD ratio is tonight.
My projection for the 5th of April was 384 too high, but the two before that 1 April for the US, and 2 April for Sweden, were spot on. I say this only to show this can be forecast with some degree of accuracy. I see the professionals all lowering and changing their models. I just hope they aren't being pressured into doing it. If so, that's going to cost even more lives - another factor - because the US will have relaxed its effort to control the spread.
I'm only capable of short range estimates ( 5 - 10 days max ). So even tonight's numbers - I'm hoping they're much lower - will be a big factor in my next estimation for the near future.
My limited skills are only due to my long hours as a IT nerd with data experience, and some formal instruction and work in Foresty where we estimate timber stands, value, etc.
My exceedingly limited ability to use.and understand charts and graphs, is from a long hobby in trading commodities, stocks, crypto currencies, and as a consultant on contractor performance evaluation, budgets, and in improving workflow efficiencies for small to medium size organizations.
Finding the need for work to earn "money" no longer an issue for over a decade now, I'm currently and frequently plagued by "senior moments" - do take that into consideration. Somehow through it all, I've managed to maintain some sense of humor - Lol.