Replies

Kung Flu -- Many Puzzling Features

I stuck to my knitting today.

Of course, I don't actually knit ... but my equivalent to knitting is working on Excel models ... in this case the new FReeQ-Bro Supermodel.

This really brought out the questions. For example:

2) Why is the "Recovered" count so LOW?

I have an idea for the answer of the second one: My daughter has a friend who was exposed and tested positive about 2 weeks ago, but she never developed any significant symptoms. I know she was in our local stats and national stats; and, she was contacted immediately by CDC to trace her contacts ... BUT THERE WAS NEVER ANY FOLLOW UP. Hence, she DOES NOT APPEAR in the "RECOVERED" statistics.

IF I WERE WITH THE CDC, RESPONSIBLE FOR ANALYZING THIS EPIDEMIC IN ORDER TO HELP GUIDE NATIONAL POLICY, I WOULD BLOODY WELL GET THE FOLLOW UP STATS ON ALL CONFIRMED CASES.

If this is really the state of things, IT IS BEYOND STUPID. This is a basic modeling requirement for a birth/death or queuing system problem.

Spit.

SUMMARY: There was no change in the trend today. Hopefully I'll be ready with a new view of the data tomorrow or Monday.

Reported Kung Flu deaths today in America: 1,344

United States COVID-19 Confirmed Cases			
Date    	Daily	Total	Reduced
        	Growth	Cases	Exponential 
        	Actual	Actual	Model
3/14/2020		 2,717 	
3/15/2020	 761 	 3,478 	
3/16/2020	 1,167 	 4,645 	
3/17/2020	 1,717 	 6,362 	
3/18/2020	 1,407 	 7,769 	
3/19/2020	 5,911 	 13,680 	
3/20/2020	 5,605 	 19,285 	
3/21/2020	 7,462 	 26,747 	
3/22/2020	 8,478 	 35,225 35,225 
3/23/2020	 11,107  46,332 44,031 
3/24/2020	 8,816 	 55,148 55,039 
3/25/2020	 13,870  69,018 68,799 
3/26/2020	 16,635  85,653 85,999 
3/27/2020	 19,363 105,016 107,498 
3/28/2020	 19,448 124,464 134,373 
3/29/2020	 17,892 142,356 167,966 
3/30/2020	 22,003 164,359 209,957 
3/31/2020	 25,151 189,510 262,447 
4/1/2020	 27,005 216,515 328,058 
4/2/2020	 28,698 245,213 410,073 
4/3/2020	 32,740 277,953 512,591 
4/4/2020	 34,123 312,076 640,739 
4/5/2020		 . 	800,924 
4/6/2020		 . 	1,001,155 
4/7/2020		.	1,251,443 
4/8/2020		.	1,564,304 
4/9/2020		.	1,955,380 
4/10/2020		.	2,444,225 
4/11/2020		.	3,055,282 
4/12/2020		.	3,819,102