Some of us out here in Freeperland doubt the projections, too.
Imperial College and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at University of Washington (IHME) models predict the closest figures to those dished out by the White House.
IHME estimated US deaths will lie between 38,000 and 162,000 if every state issues a lockdown and stays on lockdown until the summer.
Christopher Murray, the head of the IHME group, told the Post that the two models are not comparable.
‘The reason we created our model is to help hospitals plan. How many beds you’ll need, how many ventilators, when the peak is likely coming,’ Murray said.
The purpose of Imperial’s model ‘is to make people realize government intervention is crucial and what would happen without that,’ he said.
I doubt they really have a very good idea at all. Might be a whole lot more or a whole lot less. Somewhere between 6,000 and one million is my guess.
Except for Hockey Stick McGee...
like telling your spouse you totaled the car when in reality you had a small fender bender....
They seem to be the “best models available”, but as the Task Force folks have been telling us - the models can be altered by people either taking proper precautions or by people ignoring precautions...ignoring them raises the model estimates and taking them lowers the predicted death toll...they have added some sanity by acknowledging that the models are really best guess deals based on available data and that they give parameters that we can affect.