Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

To: calenel
said, "But here goes - 2% CFR for CCP-19 best results"

This is required to know how many people have been infected which isn't available yet. Though there are estimates that are out which would make the death rate between 0.2% to 1.3% death rate of those infected in Italy (which is the worst case.)

So my question is HOW did you get the total number of infected people?

652 posted on 04/02/2020 11:46:18 PM PDT by Steve Van Doorn (*in my best Eric Cartman voice* 'I love you, guys')
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 534 | View Replies ]


To: Steve Van Doorn
"This is required to know how many people have been infected which isn't available yet. Though there are estimates that are out which would make the death rate between 0.2% to 1.3% death rate of those infected in Italy (which is the worst case.)"

I clearly distinguished that 2% as some place different from Italy. 2% is where South Korea is likely to end up. They are finding low numbers of cases and testing widely, so their CFR and DCR are converging (currently 2.8% and 1.7%, respectively). Their rate of finding new cases is slower than the rate at which known cases are dying. To get to 0.2% they'd have to find something like another 100,000 cases - and they simply are not there. To get to 1.3% they'd have to find another 3 or 4 thousand cases. Oh, and all of those newfound cases would have to live.

We also have the Diamond Princess where everybody on board was tested multiple times. We know

EXACTLY(you don't have to be a putz, Mr. Panda)

how many people were infected and how many were asymptomatic, critical, etc., and how many died. Their current CFR is 2.1% and their current DCR is 1.8%.

In both instances a significant number of cases have not yet resolved. Both are large enough to be representative populations for 1 or 2 significant figure calculations. In both cases we have containment or near containment and thorough testing. And in both cases they have the full resources of an entire nation with a first world HCS focused on the problem. Barring a breakthrough and the deployment of effective treatment, that 2% number is the best we can expect.

820 posted on 04/03/2020 5:11:18 PM PDT by calenel (Don't panic. Prepare and be vigilant. Join the war effort. On the human side.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 652 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson