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To: Steve Van Doorn

“To be clear the death rate is NOT available yet. Though with modals that show it’s between 0.2% to 1.3% of those infected. The common flu is about 0.1% of those infected.”

The 0.2% to 1.3% is based on very biased estimates of cases that fail to account for the statistics we do have. I believe it largely comes from people that are claiming that anybody with underlying conditions should not be counted as a CCP-19 death (even though that’s not how it works for ANY other cause of death).

The best outcome for a large scale infection anywhere in the world so far is about 2% deaths of infected. The worst case that we know of is 12% where a first-world HCS collapsed.

That first number is pretty reliable. The second has a lot of error in it, both ways. Undercounting of deaths and undercounting of cases. For that 12% to drop to 2% they would have to find more than half a million new cases in that country and have them all survive. They just are not there.

But I’m not sure why you’re arguing that 1.3%, 13 times the flu, is somehow not a big deal.


529 posted on 04/02/2020 8:16:54 PM PDT by calenel (Don't panic. Prepare and be vigilant. Join the war effort. On the human side.)
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To: calenel

Interesting that the FluBros seem to show up at night...


696 posted on 04/03/2020 5:58:08 AM PDT by BobL
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